Author Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China  (Read 72710 times)

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Offline Gazoo

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #350 on: March 13, 2014, 06:17:48 pm »
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #351 on: March 13, 2014, 10:28:50 pm »
http://abcnews.go.com/International/malaysia-airliner-pinging-indication-crashed-indian-ocean/story?id=22894802

Malaysia Airliner Communications Shut Down Separately: US Officials Say
March 13, 2014
By MARTHA RADDATZ and DAVID KERLEY
DAVID KERLEY More From David »

Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.

The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m.

This indicates it may well have been a deliberate act, ABC News aviation consultant John Nance said.

U.S. officials said earlier that they have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to begin searching.

It's not clear what the indication was, but senior administration officials told ABC News the missing Malaysian flight continued to "ping" a satellite on an hourly basis after it lost contact with radar. The Boeing 777 jetliners are equipped with what is called the Airplane Health Management system in which they ping a satellite every hour. The number of pings would indicate how long the plane stayed aloft.

It's not clear, however, whether the satellite pings also indicate the plane's location.

The new information has greatly expanded the search area and it will take another 24 hours to move the USS Kidd into position, a senior Pentagon official told ABC News.

"We have an indication the plane went down in the Indian Ocean," the senior official said.

The official initially said there were indications that the plane flew four or five hours after disappearing from radar and that they believe it went into the water. Officials later said the plane likely did not fly four or five hours, but did not specify how long it may have been airborne.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said, “It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive, but new information, an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean, and we are consulting with international partners about the appropriate assets to deploy.”

Carney did not specify the nature of the “new information.”

Pentagon officials said that the USS Kidd was being moved at the request of Malaysia and is heading towards an area where the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea meet. The ship has helicopters aboard that can scour the area.

The U.S. action came hours after Malaysian officials said they had extended their search into the Andaman Sea and had requested help from India in the search for the missing plane and its 239 passengers.

Investigators also said today that U.S. officials gave them reasons to keep searching the waters west of Malaysia, far from the flight path of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said that the search’s “main focus has always been in the South China Sea,” which is east of Malaysia and along the plane’s route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

But the search was extended earlier this week to include water far to the west on the other side of Malaysia.

“We are working very closely with the FAA and the NTSB on the issue of a possible air turn back,” Hishammuddin said, referring to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board.

“They have indicated to us that based on the information given by the Malaysian authorities, they — being the FAA and NTSB — the U.S. team was of the view that there was reasonable ground for the Malaysian authorities to deploy resources to conduct search on the western side of the peninsula of Malaysia. Under the circumstances, it is appropriate to conduct the search even if the evidence suggests there is a possibility of finding a minor evidence to suggest that ... the aircraft would have been there.”

Hishammuddin said it was possible the plane kept flying after dropping off of radar. "Of course, this is why we have extended the search," he said.

The Malaysians spent much of today's news conference dismissing earlier leads.

"I’ve heard of many incidents from many sources. Like we have said from the start, we have looked at every lead and in most cases — in fact in all cases — that we have pursued, we have not found anything positive," Hishamuddin said.

He said that pictures of three large objects floating in the South China Sea posted Wednesday on a Chinese government website were not debris from the missing plane.

"A Malaysian maritime enforcement agency surveillance plane was dispatched this morning to investigate potential debris shown on Chinese satellite images. We deployed assets, but found nothing. We have contacted the Chinese Embassy who notified us this afternoon the images were released by mistake and did not show any debris from MH370," he said.

Hishamuddin also dismissed a report by the Wall Street Journal that signals sent by the plane's Rolls Royce engine indicated the plane kept flying for up to five hours. He didn't dispute the plane could have kept flying, but said Rolls Royce did not receive any signals from the engine after it vanished from radar.

Earlier in the search, two oil slicks were determined to not be from the plane and an orange object thought to be part of the plane's door was investigated and found to be unrelated.
 
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Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #352 on: March 13, 2014, 11:34:04 pm »
On the topic of the recently issued Airworthiness Directive regarding 777's and possible corrosion, it does not apply to 9M-MRO (the missing aircraft's registration) as it has a different antenna than the one that caused the AD to be issued.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #353 on: March 13, 2014, 11:50:49 pm »
On the topic of the recently issued Airworthiness Directive regarding 777's and possible corrosion, it does not apply to 9M-MRO (the missing aircraft's registration) as it has a different antenna than the one that caused the AD to be issued.

It doesn't seem to have played a role in any event; certainly not if the aircraft was still sending out engine performance data, nor if it was stilling "pinging" satellites once an hour.

I am going to make a very off-the-cuff guess that they've moved the search to where they have because the signals the aircraft kept emitting had time-stamps in small enough time increments, and the time of receipt for each signal was recorded, so that an analysis of the time increments, and the position of the receiving satellite, allowed someone to figure out if the source of the signals - i.e., the plane - was moving toward, away, or perpendicular to the orbit of, the receiving satellite.

From what I read about the engine data sent out, the system transmits a new set of data every 30 minutes, which means that the reference time on one dataset should be exactly 30 minutes after the preceding one and 30 minutes before the following one - because those time stamps would have been set based on the aircraft's own internal clock.  However, because radio signals cannot travel faster than light, the amount of time between when the signal is first sent and the time it's received will vary depending on how far away the plane is from the receiving satellite at the time.

For example, suppose the receiving satellite was travelling in an orbit from West to East (I'm making this up, I have no idea what sort of orbit the satellites in question have; the proposition generalizes to all types of orbits).  If the aircraft were flying toward the West, then the difference between the time a datapacket was transmitted and the time it was received would get smaller with each datapacket.  On the other hand, if the aircraft were flying toward the East, that time would get larger with each datapacket.  Finally, if the aircraft were travelling at an angle to the satellite's orbital path, the change in the time differential would be smaller in proportion to the size of the angle between the flightpath and the orbital path.

So my guess is that someone was able to analyze the different time stamps on those data packets and made an educated guess that the aircraft was probably moving in the direction of the Indian Ocean.

But that's just the total speculation of an ignorant layperson.

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #354 on: March 14, 2014, 12:09:57 am »
Apparently it wasn't sending out data, but it was pinging satellites, trying to communicate.

Also, according to ABC news, ACARS (the data system) was switched off (likely to standby mode if it was still pinging) at 1:07am and then the transponder was switched off at 1:21am.

This is what ABC news is currently reporting.  We'll see if, or likely when, the story changes for the umpteenth time.

If this is correct, it was a deliberate act either by one or both of the pilots, or by a hijacker(s).  To turn these systems off, especially ACARS requires someone with decent knowledge of the aircraft..
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #355 on: March 14, 2014, 12:11:58 am »
Apparently it wasn't sending out data, but it was pinging satellites, trying to communicate.

Also, according to ABC news, ACARS (the data system) was switched off (likely to standby mode if it was still pinging) at 1:07am and then the transponder was switched off at 1:21am.

This is what ABC news is currently reporting.  We'll see if, or likely when, the story changes for the umpteenth time.

If this is correct, it was a deliberate act either by one or both of the pilots, or by a hijacker(s).  To turn these systems off, especially ACARS requires someone with decent knowledge of the aircraft..

Even if it was just pinging, if there were a sufficient number of pings and the transmission time could be divined, then the time difference between transmission and reception could still be used to get a general idea - probably to within a given quadrant - of the aircraft's flightpath.

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #356 on: March 14, 2014, 12:22:20 am »
It doesn't seem to have played a role in any event; certainly not if the aircraft was still sending out engine performance data, nor if it was stilling "pinging" satellites once an hour.

I am going to make a very off-the-cuff guess that they've moved the search to where they have because the signals the aircraft kept emitting had time-stamps in small enough time increments, and the time of receipt for each signal was recorded, so that an analysis of the time increments, and the position of the receiving satellite, allowed someone to figure out if the source of the signals - i.e., the plane - was moving toward, away, or perpendicular to the orbit of, the receiving satellite.

From what I read about the engine data sent out, the system transmits a new set of data every 30 minutes, which means that the reference time on one dataset should be exactly 30 minutes after the preceding one and 30 minutes before the following one - because those time stamps would have been set based on the aircraft's own internal clock.  However, because radio signals cannot travel faster than light, the amount of time between when the signal is first sent and the time it's received will vary depending on how far away the plane is from the receiving satellite at the time.

For example, suppose the receiving satellite was travelling in an orbit from West to East (I'm making this up, I have no idea what sort of orbit the satellites in question have; the proposition generalizes to all types of orbits).  If the aircraft were flying toward the West, then the difference between the time a datapacket was transmitted and the time it was received would get smaller with each datapacket.  On the other hand, if the aircraft were flying toward the East, that time would get larger with each datapacket.  Finally, if the aircraft were travelling at an angle to the satellite's orbital path, the change in the time differential would be smaller in proportion to the size of the angle between the flightpath and the orbital path.

So my guess is that someone was able to analyze the different time stamps on those data packets and made an educated guess that the aircraft was probably moving in the direction of the Indian Ocean.

But that's just the total speculation of an ignorant layperson.

Same thing I've been thinking.  If you got a hit on a particular satellite you can track it back to where it was in its orbit when it received the *ping* and that would narrow the search area considerably.  That kind of analysis takes time too.  It is a very complex exercise in orbital mechanics, and while Quantum theory does not come into the equation, the math does get hairy enough to at least drive you to strong drink....

Let's see what comes of some competent analysis.  I think it is clear that Malasian aviation has been pretty well discredited across the entire spectrum, and that we cannot depend on anything coming from them.  The Indian Navy is just as likely to lose a couple of their ships due to mechanical malfeasance so once again it will likely be the US who finally locates this plane.

What should be sobering to the flying public is that there still really are places on the earth where you can in fact be cast away....


Offline Bigun

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #357 on: March 14, 2014, 12:28:00 am »
I am told by friends much more knowledgeable than I that even if the ACARS system was placed in standby mode it would still maintain some communications with the satellites and that each ping would contain some amount of information (that is how they know the engines were still running) and likely included in that information would be the planes current location. 
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"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #358 on: March 14, 2014, 12:43:39 am »
To disable the ACARS, HF, VHF systems, and the SATCOM, you have to go into the electrical/electronics (E/E for short) bay.  Those circuit breakers are not in the cockpit.  The E/E bay is located below the first class galley.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2014, 12:44:05 am by Atomic Cow »
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #359 on: March 14, 2014, 12:51:43 am »
I am told by friends much more knowledgeable than I that even if the ACARS system was placed in standby mode it would still maintain some communications with the satellites and that each ping would contain some amount of information (that is how they know the engines were still running) and likely included in that information would be the planes current location. 

AC made the same point about "pinging" while in standby.  Just my guess, but a ping probably wouldn't contain a lot of data - it's basically either a request for an answer or it's a "here I am if you want me" notice - but it might contain some sort of a time signature, which would be useful for diagnostics on the communications system itself.

In fact, while it wouldn't be particularly accurate, if you know that the aircraft systems will "ping" at a very well-defined time, then for each "ping" you receive you can determine the time that it was first transmitted from the aircraft - because that's set by definition - and you would know the time at which that "ping" was received by the satellite(s) within range, so you could use the difference between the transmission and the reception to compute the distance of the aircraft from the satellite.

Now here I'm just thinking off the cuff and on the fly:  if the aircraft's systems are "pinging" that suggests that they're looking for a satellite, any satellite, within range that they can talk to, which in turn suggests that the satellites could be close enough to each other that their coverage areas overlap, so that at least two satellites would receive a single "ping" from the aircraft.  If that were the case, then it becomes easier - once the mathematics and the physics is worked out - to triangulate in on the likely position of the aircraft.  I would think that at the least it would be possible to tell which quadrant the aircraft travelled into, using its last good known position as the origin.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #360 on: March 14, 2014, 01:11:59 am »
AC made the same point about "pinging" while in standby.  Just my guess, but a ping probably wouldn't contain a lot of data - it's basically either a request for an answer or it's a "here I am if you want me" notice - but it might contain some sort of a time signature, which would be useful for diagnostics on the communications system itself.

In fact, while it wouldn't be particularly accurate, if you know that the aircraft systems will "ping" at a very well-defined time, then for each "ping" you receive you can determine the time that it was first transmitted from the aircraft - because that's set by definition - and you would know the time at which that "ping" was received by the satellite(s) within range, so you could use the difference between the transmission and the reception to compute the distance of the aircraft from the satellite.

Now here I'm just thinking off the cuff and on the fly:  if the aircraft's systems are "pinging" that suggests that they're looking for a satellite, any satellite, within range that they can talk to, which in turn suggests that the satellites could be close enough to each other that their coverage areas overlap, so that at least two satellites would receive a single "ping" from the aircraft.  If that were the case, then it becomes easier - once the mathematics and the physics is worked out - to triangulate in on the likely position of the aircraft.  I would think that at the least it would be possible to tell which quadrant the aircraft travelled into, using its last good known position as the origin.

I am on the radio (Ham) with a bunch of retired airline pilots and FAA people as we speak! Inquiries are flying back and forth at the moment but it appears at this point that AC's math exercise explanation is the correct one!
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #361 on: March 14, 2014, 01:12:53 am »
I am on the radio (Ham) with a bunch of retired airline pilots and FAA people as we speak! Inquiries are flying back and forth at the moment but it appears at this point that AC's math exercise explanation is the correct one!


which math exercise explanation?

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #362 on: March 14, 2014, 01:21:36 am »
which math exercise explanation?

Actually it turns out to have been your math explanation that Chief responded to above,

Sorry for the confusion on my part.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #363 on: March 14, 2014, 01:24:17 am »
Actually it turns out to have been your math explanation that Chief responded to above,

Sorry for the confusion on my part.


Not at all.  I was a little confused myself.  I only thought of it because I know that a lot of ethernet packets contain timestamps and so I made the rather dangerous assumption (in case you can't tell, I'm comfortable when it comes to being an a$$ from time to time!) that a "ping" packet from these aircraft systems would also contain a timestamp.

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Offline Gazoo

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #365 on: March 14, 2014, 01:26:37 am »
Malaysia Airliner Communications Shut Down Separately: US Officials Say - ABC News
http://abcnews.go.com/International/malaysia-airliner-pinging-indication-crashed-indian-ocean/story?id=22894802
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #366 on: March 14, 2014, 01:32:00 am »
At this point I'm wondering which Muslim nation they landed the plane in and how they are hiding it.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #367 on: March 14, 2014, 01:32:27 am »
Three - not two - tracking devices were shut off.
�The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.� G Washington July 2, 1776

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #368 on: March 14, 2014, 01:32:54 am »
At this point I'm wondering which Muslim nation they landed the plane in and how they are hiding it.

India's not muslim.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #369 on: March 14, 2014, 01:39:49 am »
India's not muslim.


No, but do we know it is in India?  It could just as easily made it to Indonesia.
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Offline happyg

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #370 on: March 14, 2014, 01:44:18 am »

No, but do we know it is in India?  It could just as easily made it to Indonesia.

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India's not muslim.

From Wikipedia:
Quote
The largest Muslim population in a country is in Indonesia, a secular nation home to 11.7% of the world's Muslims, followed by india (11.0%), pakistan (10.9%), and Bangladesh (9.2%).[3][12] About 20% of Muslims live in Arab countries.[13] In the Middle East, the non-Arab countries of Turkey and Iran are the largest Muslim-majority countries; in Africa, Egypt and Nigeria have the most populous Muslim communities.[3][

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #371 on: March 14, 2014, 01:49:42 am »
Given the way they are convinced the direction the plane turned it is possible it could have turned toward either India or Indonesia.  2500 miles is a lot of territory... I don't think they could have made Africa.

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Offline Howie66

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #372 on: March 14, 2014, 02:00:59 am »
At this point I'm wondering which Muslim nation they landed the plane in and how they are hiding it.
Under Burkhas?
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #373 on: March 14, 2014, 02:02:12 am »
India's not muslim.
Right. Neither is our White House. /sarc
I come in peace, I didn't bring artillery.  But I am pleading with you with tears in my eyes:  If you bleep with me, I'll kill you all.

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I didn't enlist in the Corps just to watch my country become a Third World Communist Shit-hole. Don't know anyone who did.

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China
« Reply #374 on: March 14, 2014, 02:06:41 am »
Right. Neither is our White House. /sarc

India is ~80% Hindu, Islam is ~13%, with other religions making up the rest.  Most of the Muslim population is in the areas near Bangladesh and Pakistan.
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