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The 2014 Senate races

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pjohns:
The very trenchant political analyst, Larry Sabato, notes that the Republican brand has been harmed recently; but, even so, control of the Senate appears to be up for grabs:  Sabato shows the Democratic count at 50 (which includes Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Leans Democratic), and the Republican count at 48 (with the same categories), and two races as tossups (in Alaska and Arkansas).

The Democrats have made gains in Louisiana and North Carolina, what with Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan now edging ahead.  (Sabato has both of these races in the Leans Democratic category now, rather than as tossups.)

And Georgia has now migrated from the Likely Republican category to Leans Republican.

On the other hand, Kentucky remains in the Likely Republican category, despite the problems recently experienced by its senior senator (and Senate Minority Leader) Mitch McConnell.  And Montana--which has been in the Leans Republican column--remains there.

Here is the link:  http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/after-the-shutdown-republicans-sort-through-the-wreckage/

Cincinnatus:
Too far out to make such calls and the full impact of ObamaCare has yet to be felt. Wait until people get a gander at the cost of their coverage and their deductibles. 

pjohns:

--- Quote from: Cincinnatus on October 24, 2013, 10:42:01 pm ---Too far out to make such calls and the full impact of ObamaCare has yet to be felt. Wait until people get a gander at the cost of their coverage and their deductibles.

--- End quote ---

This is a very good point.

Sabato's look at the upcoming Senate races amounts to the proverbial snapshot in time--nothing more. And things are likely to get worse for the Democrats, both because of the ObamaCare sticker shock (to which, you have alluded) and because the GOP's (currently) tarnished reputation is unlikely to be in such bad odor more than 12 months from now.

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