Get Settled: Shutdown Likely to Last

[mystery-ak]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/01/Get-Settled-Shutdown-Likely-to-Last

 by Joel B. Pollak 1 Oct 2013, 5:34 AM PDT

Though the media and the Democrats are describing the hours-old partial federal government shutdown as if Republicans can be expected to cave on their positions at any moment, it is far more likely that the shutdown will continue through the debt ceiling negotiations--i.e. mid-October and perhaps beyond.

That is because for both sides, backing down before the debt ceiling issue is resolved will greatly reduce the leverage they have in those talks. Democrats want Republicans feel some pain as the consequence of holding out past a key deadline, while Republicans know that if they concede now, they will concede forever.

Allowing the budget battle to carry over into the debt ceiling debate also carries substantial risks for both sides. Republicans will feel the pressure mount as they are blamed, in typical but inevitable one-sided fashion, for whatever economic damage the shutdown (debatable) and debt debate (real) do to the country.

But Democrats face a risk they have not anticipated. For three years, they have dangled the prospect of a federal shutdown like an anvil above Republicans' heads, warning them of the political damage that would ensue if the GOP stuck to its platform on cutting spending, reducing the debt, fighting Obamacare and so on.

Now that the weight has dropped, the threats of shutdown and even default lose some of their mystery and power. In his autobiography, Long Walk to Freedom, Nelson Mandela recalled that one of the chief benefits of early civil rights demonstrations against apartheid was that ordinary people lost their fear of jail.

"The stigma associated with imprisonment had been removed," he wrote. "This was a significant achievement, for fear of prison is a tremendous hindrance to a liberation struggle." In the same way, fear of a shutdown was a major obstacle to GOP success in negotiations, from the debt ceiling to the fiscal cliff.

That fear will fade, because whatever the impact of a federal shutdown is, it cannot possibly be as bad as Obama, the Democrats and the media have made it out to be. As with the sequester, which the White House cast as an apocalyptic event, Democrats may find themselves weighted down by their own propaganda.

Republicans, conversely, will have less to fear over time. They have also seen Obama cave on Syria, and have shed some of the awe in which the presidency is usually held. The public hates debt ceiling hikes, and the debate offers the GOP a chance to broaden the argument beyond Obamacare. Settle in for a long fight.

[GourmetDan]

Though the media and the Democrats are describing the hours-old partial federal government shutdown as if Republicans can be expected to cave on their positions at any moment, it is far more likely that the shutdown will continue through the debt ceiling negotiations--i.e. mid-October and perhaps beyond.

Hope so.  It'll be like the sequester.  Supposedly a fiasco for the GOP till the majority realized that their lives weren't impacted at all...

[sinkspur]

The public hates debt ceiling hikes, and the debate offers the GOP a chance to broaden the argument beyond Obamacare. Settle in for a long fight.

So, Pollack thinks the public will suddenly be on the GOP's side--after two weeks of shutdown--when the financial markets start diving in anticipation of a default.

[Scottftlc]

As long as the NFL and college football keep on playing, as long as the MLB playoffs go on, as long as your iPad and Smartphone keep on working, as long as your flights keep taking off, as long as cable and satellite TV keep running....no one outside a federal employee or non-SS check recipient or someone with D.C. garbage service is going to give a Rat's Ass about a government shutdown.

I love the garbage service suspension. Bury that rotten, corrupt, 9th level of Hell in what it dishes out to the rest of the country every single day.

[sinkspur]

As long as the NFL and college football keep on playing, as long as the MLB playoffs go on, as long as your iPad and Smartphone keep on working, as long as your flights keep taking off, as long as cable and satellite TV keep running....no one outside a federal employee or non-SS check recipient or someone with D.C. garbage service is going to give a Rat's Ass about a government shutdown.

I love the garbage service suspension. Bury that rotten, corrupt, 9th level of Hell in what it dishes out to the rest of the country every single day.

The same holds true for Obamacare.  90% of Americans get their insurance through their employer and they won't notice any difference.

[Bigun]

So, Pollack thinks the public will suddenly be on the GOP's side--after two weeks of shutdown--when the financial markets start diving in anticipation of a default.

Yep! And so do I!

[Scottftlc]

The same holds true for Obamacare.  90% of Americans get their insurance through their employer and they won't notice any difference.

Considering that only about 50 percent of the population is in the labor force overall, and 19.5 percent of those are under 35 hours per week and another 7.2 percent are unemployed....well, you're going to have to amend that 90 percent figure a little bit.

[sinkspur]

Considering that only about 50 percent of the population is in the labor force overall, and 19.5 percent of those are under 35 hours per week and another 7.2 percent are unemployed....well, you're going to have to amend that 90 percent figure a little bit.

90% of AMERICANS WHO WORK FULL TIME get their insurance through their employer.

[Rapunzel]

90% of AMERICANS WHO WORK FULL TIME get their insurance through their employer.

http://kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/8346-employer-health-benefits-annual-survey-summary-of-findings-0912.pdf

snip.........

Sixty-one percent of firms offer health benefits to their workers, similar to the
percentage (60%) that offered last year (Exhibit G). The likelihood of offering
health benefits differs significantly by size, with only 50% of employers with 3–9
workers offering coverage. Virtually all employers with 1,000 or more workers
offer coverage to at least some of their employees.

Even in firms that offer health benefits, not all workers are covered. Some workers are
not eligible to enroll as a result of waiting periods or minimum work-hour rules.
Other workers do not enroll in coverage offered to them because of the cost of
coverage or because they have access to coverage through a spouse. Among firms
that offer coverage, an average of 77% of workers are eligible for the health benefits
offered by their employer.

Of those eligible, 81% take up their employer’s coverage, resulting in 62% of workers in offering firms having coverage through their employer.

Among both firms that offer and do not offer health benefits, 56% of workers are covered by health plans offered by their employer, similar to the percentage
in 2011.

[Cincinnatus]

when the financial markets start diving in anticipation of a default.

Ho hum.

U.S. Stocks Up Ahead of Close
Government Shutdown Fails to Scare Market

Stocks rose despite the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years, as investors looked on to Washington for signs of political compromise.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 32 points, or 0.2%, to 15161 in late-afternoon trading. The blue chips took a step back from earlier gains, which had brought the benchmark up as many as 79 points.

The S&P 500 tacked on nine points, or 0.5%, to 1690, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 36 points, or 1%, to 3807.

I cannot remember the last time, or any time as a matter of fact, when this guy got something right.