Everything You Need to Know About December Labor Stats
By Mike Shedlock
The establishment survey report of +155,000 jobs was about what most expected.
However, beneath the surface, this report looks weak.
The household survey shows a gain of a mere 28,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed the same although the number of people unemployed rose by 164,000.
December BLS Jobs Report at a Glance
Payrolls +155,000 - Establishment Survey
US Employment +28,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work -220,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate +.00 at 7.8% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment +.00 to 14.4% - Household Survey
The Civilian Labor Force +192,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force -16,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate +.00 to 63.6 - Household Survey
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
Last month it was reported the US unemployment rate fell -.2 to 7.7%
This month the unemployment rate was reported flat at 7.8% (so last month was revised up)
In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,199,000
Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,436,000
Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,766,000 a decline of 16,000
Ratio of long-term unemployment to overall unemployment is 39.1%. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
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