Author Topic: Rasmussen Daily: TUE 11/06: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%  (Read 2221 times)

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Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Rasmussen Daily: TUE 11/06: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%
« on: November 06, 2012, 09:29:52 AM »


The final numbers are in. R:49 O:48. This still includes the good SAT numbers for the President. They did not fall off yet

Let us break down the numbers:

  • True number should have been R:50 O:48 but ONCE AGAIN the "Lean Romney" number is rounded down to zero
  • Only 87% of Republicans are shown voting for the Governor. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans will vote for the President. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Right Track/Wrong Track Nationally is 44/53. Seems too high
  • RT/WT for Asians and Hispanics is 47/50. Seems too high
  • Governor leads Independents by 14
  • The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Approval Index is -22% for Independents. GOOD!
    Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24

    Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (87*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 49.35
    Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (12*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 47.88

Now, as I have said in my previous commentaries, I find the Republican voter number for the Governor (87%) unbelievable. Every other survey (including liberal ones) find the number to be near 95%. So, let us run the SAME numbers (above) with just one change i.e. assume that 95% of Republicans vote for the Governor

    Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (95*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 52.31
    Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (05*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 45.29

    So final tally: R:52 O:45
    If you throw 1% to "Other" and split the other 2% between the two then your final tally becomes:

    R:53 O:46

FINAL THOUGHTS: In less than 12 hours it will become clear how right or wrong I was. Unlike Nate Silver, I do not claim powers of soothsaying or divinity. I am just an Engineer and my data is only as good as the input (Rasmussen's numbers) and my analysis (the best I can do)

I truly appreciate the help everyone has given and I raise my toast in anticipation of a great victory by the Governor

NOTE: Many numbers used here are internal and not available on the link above
« Last Edit: November 06, 2012, 09:30:20 AM by SoftwareEngineer »

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Rasmussen Daily: TUE 11/06: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2012, 09:39:59 AM »
Well I can't say I am not disappointed in the final numbers...and pray that Ras is wrong...

Thanks SF for your outstanding analysis the last couple of days....we appreciate it!
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Offline Emma

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Re: Rasmussen Daily: TUE 11/06: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2012, 09:41:51 AM »
Thanks for this analysis SE - and I believe you are closer to the mark than most.  There are some pundits who are trying to say this about the polling but they are being drowned out.

I think the numbers and enthusiasm is in our favor, and hoping it's enough to overcome the cheating!  :0001:

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