Schoen: On Election Eve, ‘Movement’ Towards Romney
Monday, November 5, 2012 03:14 PM
By: Todd Beamon and Kathleen Walter
With less than 24 hours left before Election Day, “the movement has been in the direction of Mitt Romney” over President Barack Obama, Democratic pollster Doug Schoen tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.
“What I see is a presidential race that is within half a percent, according to the Real Clear Politics averages,” Schoen, the former pollster for President Bill Clinton, tells Newsmax. “But the important point that most commentators haven’t noted is that the last two days, maybe even the last day, the movement has been in the direction of Mitt Romney.
“So I could foresee a set of circumstances where the popular was either dead level even, or even narrowly for Gov. Romney, leaving the question who will win the Electoral College.”
Because the presidential race is so tight, Schoen foresees a recount in at least one of the key battleground states.
“You could make a case that each and every one of them is knotted up within the margin of error, so it’s entirely possible we could have a recount somewhere. I don’t think we’re going to have a Florida 2000 scenario, but I worry that in states like Ohio – and perhaps Pennsylvania, Michigan Wisconsin, Minnesota – we could end up in one of those four or five states within a point or less triggering an automatic recount, but also, concerns about ballot integrity.”
Schoen also offered these predictions regarding the battleground states:
Florida: “I see Gov. Romney. He’s got a couple-of-points lead there. The numbers I’m seeing from the state show movement to Gov. Romney, so I see Romney winning.”
Nevada: “Between the Hispanic and the African-American vote there, Nevada will go for President Obama by 2 to 4 points.”
Colorado: “Colorado is very tight. The Republicans have been surging a bit there. The numbers I’ve seen show the race close to a statistical tie. Obama won it last time. It’s anyone’s bet who’s going to win this time.”
Iowa: “I see Iowa narrowly, narrowly for President Obama – notwithstanding the Des Moines Register’s endorsement of Gov. Romney. Obama has invested a huge amount of time, effort, energy, and, most of all, money there. So he’s got a victory there.”
Wisconsin and Michigan: “They have been tightening and tightening dramatically in the last four or five days. I’ve seen polls in both that show the race dead-level even. My best guess is that between Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, maybe one of those states will be a surprise and Gov. Romney will pull through. But I would also not be startled if the president won each of those four.”
Virginia and Pennsylvania: “Pennsylvania’s within three points, now. Huge movement in Western and Central Pennsylvania on the coal issue to Gov. Romney.”
Ohio: “I am of the view that Ohio is going to go for President Obama for the reasons that we’ve been discussing. He’s just invested so much time and money there that he’s got a bit of a firewall there. But, again, if Gov. Romney is going to be successful, what he’s going to have to do is pick up a state like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to make up for what I believe is the likely loss of Ohio.”
As for the Senate races, Schoen predicts Democrats will retain control because of election-night victories by Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, Tammy Donnelly in Indiana – and by incumbents Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
“The Republicans will keep the House,” Schoen added. “And if I’m right, and President Obama is ever so narrowly re-elected – we’re going to have more divided government, which will hurt our country and hurt our chances to resolve our fiscal, social, and international problems.”