Author Topic: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6  (Read 4328 times)

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Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« on: November 05, 2012, 01:45:46 PM »
http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2012/11/05/Why-the-Polls-are-Wrong-Poll-Shows-Electorate-is-R-6

While every single poll on the planet predicts Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage of three to eleven points, the latest Rasmussen survey of party affiliation taken throughout October shows that Republicans enjoy a  huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election.

According to Twitter's invaluable NumbersMuncher, Rasmussen correctly predicted 2008 would be a D+7 election and incorrectly predicted 2010 would be D+3. (2010 was D+0, or even, so Rasmussen gave an edge to Democrats they didn't have.)

If the 2012 race is D+2, Romney's probably going to win. If the race is R+6, Romney's going to enjoy a landslide.

The most important piece of information in this poll, though, is that Rasmussen's sample is a monstrous 15,000 likely voter. Moreover, Rasmussen's Party ID results match similar results found by Gallup and  Pew.
 
Again, if Rasmussen is anywhere near as correct as he's been in the past, all of these polls showing Obama holding small leads, are dead wrong. They're under-sampling Republicans in a major way; predicting an electorate that looks like 2008.

Offline Batman

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 01:48:34 PM »
My thoughts exactly! Just posted in the other thread in this. If this is correct, prepare for a landslide!

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2012, 01:49:01 PM »
Where does the +6R come from?...anyone?

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Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 01:54:51 PM »
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Myst - you can see that based on Rass's October 31, 2012 polling, 39.1% of those polled identified themselves as Republican whereas only 33.3% Democrat - a difference of 5.8% (an all time high, BTW).     
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 02:00:13 PM by Lando Lincoln »
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 01:57:28 PM »
Liberalism isn't really about making the world a better place. It's about reassuring the elites that they are good people for wanting to rule over it.

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 02:13:35 PM »
By the way, for those who twitter, Numbers Muncher is a good one to follow.

Online Bigun

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2012, 02:21:04 PM »
Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)

For comparison:

Nov 2008: Republican: 33.8% Democrat: 41.4% Other: 24.7% (D+7.6%)

And here are the 2010 numbers for comparison.

Oct

33.4% R

36.3% D

30.3% Other

-2.9% R-D

And we all SAW what happend that year!

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 02:43:21 PM »
An "expert" of status comparable to Ras, stated a few days ago this was the last election to feature conventional, traditional polling as we have come to know it.

He says the stable, land line era is over, and pollsters attempts to keep up to date with changing technology, individual lifestyles, etc. is over.

I don't completely buy that. Increasingly all phone numbers are stable, as people change providers, but keep the same number, including porting landline numbers to cellular or internet services. 
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline GonzoGOP

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 02:54:10 PM »
Quote
He says the stable, land line era is over, and pollsters attempts to keep up to date with changing technology, individual lifestyles, etc. is over.

Unlikely.   Good polling is so valuable to both campaigns and market research that somebody will figure out how to do it.  However that being said getting good polling data is both hard and expensive.  Cheap media polls are likely on the way out as they are so inaccurate as to be of no real value.  Look at how Zogby has dropped out of sight after blowing so many predictions.  Oh he still releases polls, but nobody pays any attention.

Polls will be reduced to two types.   First will be the high quality, high expense types used by big business and internal political campaigns.  Those cost a lot of money, but becase the politicans and big business people need accurate data they will pay the price.    The second type will be the worthless push polls used to move public debate.  That second group doesn't have to be accurate, so they are still cheap.
There are millions of paranoid people in the world, and they are all out to get me.

Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 03:00:03 PM »
My completely ridiculous and juvenile popular vote prediction (simply an inspiration that came to me FWIW).

Barack Obama     63,211,207
Mitt Romney         68,229,599

Ok, I feel better ~LOL.  Still no inspiration on the EC results...
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 03:13:40 PM »
Unlikely.   Good polling is so valuable to both campaigns and market research that somebody will figure out how to do it.  However that being said getting good polling data is both hard and expensive.  Cheap media polls are likely on the way out as they are so inaccurate as to be of no real value.  Look at how Zogby has dropped out of sight after blowing so many predictions.  Oh he still releases polls, but nobody pays any attention.

Polls will be reduced to two types.   First will be the high quality, high expense types used by big business and internal political campaigns.  Those cost a lot of money, but becase the politicans and big business people need accurate data they will pay the price.    The second type will be the worthless push polls used to move public debate.  That second group doesn't have to be accurate, so they are still cheap.
A few years ago I participated in a Zogby attempt, to generate reliable and accurate polling, from an internet database of participants.

It seemed like he was trying to get a pool of participants, that reflected the voters.

He was trying very hard to force a category of extremely conservative, right wing religious zealots.

I continued to answer, Conservative (not Very Conservative) and No to Born Again Christian.

I think they dropped me, because I didn't fit into their paradigm of who conservatives are.
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 06:51:37 PM »
Rass said on Hannity's radio show that final turnout would be D+3.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

"The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections." -Lord Acton

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 06:53:02 PM »
Rass said on Hannity's radio show that final turnout would be D+3.

He did?...I missed that.....that means a Dem victory...

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Offline Oceander

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 06:56:25 PM »

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2012, 07:01:06 PM »
no it doesn't

Ras has been polling at a +3Dem or +4Dem.......I listened to Hannity today and I missed him saying this...

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Offline Oceander

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2012, 07:08:49 PM »

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2012, 07:09:19 PM »
It was around 3:45 (Central Time) when Rass and Barone were talking to Hannity about their predictions.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

"The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections." -Lord Acton

Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2012, 07:35:48 PM »
Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2012, 07:39:02 PM »
Thanks SF..that makes me feel a little better..I am confident we will get more than 86% Repub turnout...

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Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2012, 07:42:39 PM »
Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46

What is the basis of the increase from 86 to 95?  I am not challenging you, I'm just curious.  If it is simply anecdotal, I can accept it.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2012, 08:48:18 PM »
Hi... Two things:

History: Even McCain got 93 to 95%

Other polls: EVERY other poll including ABCWASHPO and GALLUP show Republicans backing Gov Romney at the 97% level

This whole anomaly in RAS is due to his overly Dem sample (D+4 in the one out today) that he then tries to correct to D+2. Since the sample is overly Democratic to begin with, it creates a overly generous Dem biased sample

Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2012, 09:16:57 PM »
Thanks SE... it makes perfect sense to me, especially considering Obama as the alternative.  Very plausible.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2012, 09:26:26 PM »
Not sure where to stick this.  From Republican Security Council post on FB:

The final Romney internal polls are Ohio +1, New Hampshire +3, Iowa +2, Nevada -3, and the race is tied in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The key consideration now is not Ohio or Wisconsin, but the party turnout. How many Republicans, Democrats and Independent voters will make up the electorate? The major pollsters are clearly in disagreement on the turnout model.
PHOTO: The Romney Victory Rally today at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia was filled to capacity. After the rally he went outside to address those who were unable to get into the event.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2012, 09:27:40 PM »
Yep.. I think Nevada is gone. Las Vegas came in with 40,000 more D's in early voting so unless the hinterlands of Nevada come out close to 100% there is no way to out-do Clark County... and SEIU

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: The Polls Are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2012, 01:43:34 AM »
It would be worth going back and reviewing the false basis for so much optimism.
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln


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