Author Topic: Rasmussen: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48%  (Read 1597 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Rasmussen: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
« on: November 05, 2012, 10:09:24 AM »

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Offline GonzoGOP

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Re: Rasmussen: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 10:25:09 AM »
It looks like the Sandy bump has rolled off.  It is too late for a November surprise to have much impact now.  It is down to turnout, the broken glass GOP vs the Chicago Machine.  The machine has been looking rusty in the early voting numbers.  It will be interesting to see if they can turn out their troops now that they know there won't be any money from "Obama's Stash" waiting for them.
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Offline Oceander

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Re: Rasmussen: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2012, 10:30:45 AM »
It looks like the Sandy bump has rolled off.  It is too late for a November surprise to have much impact now.  It is down to turnout, the broken glass GOP vs the Chicago Machine.  The machine has been looking rusty in the early voting numbers.  It will be interesting to see if they can turn out their troops now that they know there won't be any money from "Obama's Stash" waiting for them.

It will also be interesting to see how many of their reliable troops they used on getting their early voting numbers up; the GOP has apparently been relatively successful at getting so-called "unreliable" voters - people who are less than likely to vote - to do early or absentee voting, which means the GOP should still have its base available to vote tomorrow.  By contrast, if the DNC has been expending its base votes on early/absentee voting, then they will not have those votes tomorrow, which means their overall votes could be significantly lower than they currently appear to be based just on early/absentee voting.

Offline GonzoGOP

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Re: Rasmussen: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 10:46:07 AM »
By contrast, if the DNC has been expending its base votes on early/absentee voting, then they will not have those votes tomorrow, which means their overall votes could be significantly lower than they currently appear to be based just on early/absentee voting.

The Democrats tried a big gamble.  If they could run up a big lead in early voting, they could use their sycophants in the press to build up a meme of an Obama blowout and depress GOP turnout on Election Day.  The problem was they were much to obvious in doing it.  So as you said the GOP used their early voting to bring out large number of non-core voters.  This allowed them to defeat the meme of a democrat blowout, without having to commit their reserves.  In poker terms the Dems went all in on the deal.   The GOP refused to panic and fold and now the Dems are forced to play the turnout game against a very fired up GOP.
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Offline Scottftlc

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Re: Rasmussen: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 11:31:29 AM »
the GOP has apparently been relatively successful at getting so-called "unreliable" voters - people who are less than likely to vote

One of those is my daughter...26...more interested in celebrity shenanigans than her own paycheck.  She will be hog-tied and drug to the polls tomorrow with me, after she sounded like she didn't want to bother with the whole thing: "are there going to be more things to vote on than just that one thing?"  I am so glad that the young people are Obama's stupid core...a lot of them will not show up unless someone drags them there.
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Offline Scottftlc

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Re: Rasmussen: Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 11:37:40 AM »
The Democrats tried a big gamble.  If they could run up a big lead in early voting, they could use their sycophants in the press to build up a meme of an Obama blowout and depress GOP turnout on Election Day.  The problem was they were much to obvious in doing it.  So as you said the GOP used their early voting to bring out large number of non-core voters.  This allowed them to defeat the meme of a democrat blowout, without having to commit their reserves.  In poker terms the Dems went all in on the deal.   The GOP refused to panic and fold and now the Dems are forced to play the turnout game against a very fired up GOP.

I think one of the big stories of the campaign will be the Democrat strategy of proclaiming the race over and trying to get everyone to ignore the election.  Everything they have done this entire cycle was based on that strategy.  They just pretty much wanted everyone to forget it was happening and downgrade turnout by using apathy as their weapon.  I think they knew all along that their voters weren't going to show like they did before, so they needed to degrade the Republican and Independent turnout by saying it's all over and done, go do something else.  From their early summer effort to demonize Romney with negative ads right up to the distraction of Sandy that was handed to them, that is what their game plan was.  They knew their vote would be depressed, so they needed to depress the other side. 

I don't think it is going to work.
Well, George Lewis told the Englishman, the Italian and the Jew
You can't open your mind, boys, to every conceivable point of view

...Bob Dylan


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