Author Topic: Final election predictions  (Read 1713 times)

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Offline pjohns

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Final election predictions
« on: November 04, 2012, 02:20:58 PM »
I will go out on a limb now--and a rather rickety one, at that--and issue my Fearless Forecast of the battleground states (including those states that are part of a recently expanded electoral map).

No need to call all 50 states; the majority are pretty obvious.  No serious person, for instance, really believes that California will vote for Gov. Romney.  Or that Texas will go for President Obama.

Still, here are the swing states, as I see them:

Colorado:  Very close.  And this state has a very high percentage of women voters.  Still, what I have seen would appear to indicate that the trend, however slight, is toward Gov. Romney.  Romney

Florida:  This state has been trending toward Gov. Romney for the past month or so.  And the (traditional) Mediscare tactic does not appear to be taking hold there, among seniors.  Romney

Iowa:  This state is exceedingly close, in my view.  Much will depend upon whether the Republican-leaning western portion of the state can effectively vitiate the Democratic advantage in the eastern part of the state.  Still, the Des Moines Register's recent endorsement of Gov. Romney may be of some importance.  Not because newspaper endorsements, per se, are a major factor anymore--newspapers simply do not have the same clout they once did, to shape voters' opinions--but because it may be emblematic of a trend.  Romney   

Nevada:  Republicans have some reason to hope here.  It is my understanding that early voting in Clark County (Las Vegas, which is heavily unionized) is down a bit from 2008 levels.  Still, I rather expect President Obama to keep The Silver State in the blue column.  Obama

New Hampshire:  Another very close state, like Iowa.  Still, the recent trends that I have seen appear to favor the former governor of a contiguous state.  Romney

Virginia:  Early voting in northern Virginia--a Democratic stronghold--appears to be rather disappointing, from a Democratic standpoint.  So, although the public polls seem to show this as a real tossup, I think the margin might be a little greater than many expect. Romney   

Wisconsin:  Like most Republicans, I had a great deal of hope that Gov. Romney could carry The Badger State, following the failed recall of Gov. Scott Walker in June.  But I am beginning to think the Democratic hold on this state will continue--although it could be close.  Obama

Michigan:  This state has looked to be in play for some weeks now.  Still, the auto bailout (that did not play very well throughout most of the country) is, understandably, rather popular here.  And I expect Detroit to deliver the state into Democratic hands.  Obama

Pennsylvania:  A recent poll in The Keystone State, showing Gov. Romney up by an astounding four percentage points, has given rise to some Republican hope here.  And the fact that Gov. Romney is spending some valuable time and campaign funds (over this last pre-election weekend) in Pennsylvania may be revealing.  Even so, this may be a little like Charlie Brown, who regularly thinks that this will be the time that Lucy really does hold the football--and yet it never quite happens.  Obama 

Minnesota  Astonishingly, one new poll in Minnesota actually puts the Romney-Ryan team up by four points in The Gopher State.  But this is an outlier.  And frankly, I would be shocked if the Minneapolis-St. Paul area were not able to deliver this state to the Democratic candidate.  (In fact, if President Obama manages to lose Minnesota, the race will effectively be over; it will be a landslide, in that event.)  Obama

North Carolina:  I continue to see this as a relatively easy takeaway from the 2008 Obama column.  Romney

Oregon:  Frankly, I cannot see this as a swing state.  But some do, so I am including it here.  Like Minnesota, however, it should be an easy win for the Democrat; and, if it is not, we are surely in landslide territory.  Obama

Ohio:  This is the big one.  I do think Democratic intensity is down, as compared with Republican intensity; and that is difficult for polls to measure.  Moreover, those polls that show President Obama with a lead in The Buckeye State appear to be assuming an electorate that is somewhat similar to the 2008 electorate; whereas I would imagine it would be a bit closer to the 2004 electorate.  So I am predicting a mild upset here.  Romney

If these predictions prove correct, it would amount to 295 electoral votes for Gov. Romney, versus 243 electoral votes for President Obama.

I should note, however, that many of the above states remain too close to call with any real degree of certainty; I have simply attempted to call every state, so as to leave none undecided.  And I would be rather surprised if I were to be proven correct in 100 percent of those cases.

For the record, I am a Romney supporter; so those who wish to take my predictions with a grain of salt should certainly not feel inhibited about doing so.

Still, I have attempted to make some serious calls here.  Within just over 48 hours, we will all know how I did; so I have no desire to go on record with predictions that I would regard as unlikely to be verified Tuesday.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2012, 03:39:05 PM by pjohns »

Online mystery-ak

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 02:27:09 PM »
I don't care how we get there as long as we analysis looks good btw..

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Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 02:40:32 PM »
Big surprise of the night, Akin wins MO Senate seat.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 02:42:36 PM »
Big surprise of the night, Akin wins MO Senate seat.

I hope so........ I saw on Twitter last night that McCaskill's campaign's October surprise was Akin has been arrested not 4 times, but 8 times... so I went and looked it up... he WAS - for protesting outside abortion clinics....   In Mo that might actually improve his ratings, not hurt him.
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Offline Chieftain

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 03:49:19 PM »
My prediction is a massive win for Romney in the both the popular vote and the electoral collage.  I think he will finish with well over three hundred electoral votes and that the rejection of Obama will be overwhelmingly clear to the Nation by the time the polls close on the West Coast.  I predict that Romney and Ryan will be the clear winners by 11 O'clock on the East Coast, although it will take a few days to get final numbers as absentee ballots are counted, and such.

I predict Republicans will pick up at least 6 seats in the House and take a firm Majority in the Senate.  Harry Reid is about to become insignificant.

That's as far out on a limb as I can go at this point, and it won't take a lot of sawing to cut me down....but that's my story and I'm stickin' to it.....


Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 04:55:29 PM »
Romney will take PA. Coal is a big issue.
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Online Oceander

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 06:28:35 PM »

I won't vote for Clinton, but I cannot vote for Trump.  How could I explain to my daughter why I supported a man who sees her as nothing more than a piece of meat, a piece of a$$ for him to grope for his own private pleasure.

"Trump supporter" - the very definition of an SFI

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 06:47:28 PM »
Romney will take PA. Coal is a big issue. is a huge issue in Ohio, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and a whole bunch of others who generate most of their electricity with coal and have seen nothing but rising electricity prices.  Coal isn't just about the miners, there is an entire economy and infrastructure that is devoted to efficiently moving and using coal.  The railroad devotes a tremendous amount of effort into moving coal, and if it isn't mined they cannot move it.  Coal moves on the Great Lakes too, and if it isn't mined and moved, it cannot be loaded on a bulk freighter either.

Coal is an integral part of the American economy, and will remain so for the foreseeable future.  Obama's war on coal has not gone unnoticed and will be a big part of the coming repudiation of Obama on Tuesday.

Tsunami coming.....

Offline A.Hun

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2012, 07:13:37 PM »
I believe that Romney will take WI and PA and win with nearly 300 EVs.

Romney will take the popular vote 51 to 46 with 3% going green and libertarian.

Repubs will easily maintain the majority in the House, but will fall short by 2 of control of the Senate.

We will see on Tuesday! :patriot:
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Final election predictions
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2012, 08:24:55 PM »
I, too, believe PA and WI will finally swing to Romney-- much to the surprise of a lot of people. Shale gas is starting to take root in PA, and that's starting to revive the economies of the areas outside the cities.

Now, think back to the past few months and I, like pjohns, have repeatedly said that Pennsylvania is a tease, with its population declining in the rural areas and its five straight elections voting Democrat. But this just seems like a realistic shot for hope. Also: expect an upset, Smith narrowly over Casey.

WI is on a hot streak right now for the GOP and I don't see that changing. The unions have thrown everything at the Republicans and have failed miserably.

Michigan's going to be tight. It could fall for Romney, which will be huge.

I have a bad hunch about Ohio, though.

All in all, I expect Romney wins. I also expect a couple blue-state upsets (perhaps McMahon in CT?), bringing the Senate to 50-49-1, with Angus King as the X factor.
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