Sunday, November 04, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.
These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.
One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.
If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose. Rasmussen Reports currently estimates that white turnout will be similar to the 2008 totals. Black voters, however, are far more likely to have voted already than any other segment of the electorate.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
Just over one-out-of-four Americans (27%) say the upcoming election has negatively affected their personal relationship with a friend or family member.
The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,Virginia and Wisconsin.
“It’s somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House,” Scott Rasmussen writes in his latest weekly newspaper column. “But the race for the White House remains close because of the economy. Most Americans do not feel better off than they were four years ago, but most are not feeling worse off either.”
Scott Rasmussen provides an overview of the election on this weekend’s edition of his new television show-- What America Thinks . The program is seen on WLNY in New York at 10:30 Sunday morning and on more than 60 stations nationwide.
If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings project the Democrats are likely to end up with 47 Senate seats and the Republicans with 46. Seven races remain Toss-Ups: Florida, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Rasmussen Reports polling tends to show less volatility than other polls for a variety of reasons. In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead. This stable assessment of the race is consistent with the reality of what we know about voter behavior. Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin.
The race has been consistently stable and close during this campaign season as well. For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we are conducting 1,000 survey interviews per night.
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).
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