Author Topic: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%  (Read 2711 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« on: November 04, 2012, 09:18:56 AM »
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 09:40:21 AM »
No internals until tonight, but the last NBC/WSJ poll was skewed D+6.
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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 09:45:00 AM »
No internals until tonight, but the last NBC/WSJ poll was skewed D+6.

Not sure if it is true but saw on twitter they dropped it to +2Dem....?
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Oceander

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Re: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 09:47:33 AM »
Like all of the other recent polls, this poll is within its margin of error and is therefore most likely not particularly useful.

I also found an interesting little tidbit about margins of error from the wikipedia article on margins of error:

Quote
However, the margin of error only accounts for random sampling error, so it is blind to systematic errors that may be introduced by non-response or by interactions between the survey and subjects' memory, motivation, communication and knowledge.

I'm not a pollster, nor do I have more than a layperson's understanding of statistics, but it seems to me that this is a very unusual election cycle and that the use of conventional polling methods, done without any significant analysis, has introduced systematic errors that make most of these results fairly useless as well.

Obama may still win - and the incidents of apparent voting machine "error" are disturbing - but if he does, it will be by a razor-thin margin, not the blowout that "useful tools" like Nate Silver are forecasting.

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 09:54:26 AM »
Socialism is like the monster in "It" - every thirty years or so it returns to devour the young.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 03:56:46 PM »
I think that is speculation. The internals will not be released until 6:30 PM ET tonight.
So they release the results, then they release the internals later? Shady.

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 04:22:06 PM »
No internals until tonight, but the last NBC/WSJ poll was skewed D+6.

And that skewing has been the problem all along.  It is hard to know right now just how hard they really are skewing things, but if they are using 2008 as a model template, then the Democrats are more deluded than anyone realized, and that means they will be jumping out of windows by 11:00 on election night.  When the polls close on the West Coast, I think the Romney victory will be clear.  Within an hour, just how big a victory it is will be clear, and it will not be safe on the sidewalks under the apartments where Democrats live....


Oceander

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Re: Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 04:43:23 PM »
And that skewing has been the problem all along.  It is hard to know right now just how hard they really are skewing things, but if they are using 2008 as a model template, then the Democrats are more deluded than anyone realized, and that means they will be jumping out of windows by 11:00 on election night.  When the polls close on the West Coast, I think the Romney victory will be clear.  Within an hour, just how big a victory it is will be clear, and it will not be safe on the sidewalks under the apartments where Democrats live....



Dang!  That means I won't be able to go outside and do my victory dance in NYC!


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