Author Topic: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily  (Read 4318 times)

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Offline Rapunzel

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Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« on: November 02, 2012, 05:58:23 PM »
http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470#.UJRAZIa8iun

Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
November 2, 2012 | 4:58 pm



Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

 

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2012, 06:01:10 PM »
OMG he gave Pa to Romney......I like and trust Barone and pray he is right.

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Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2012, 06:07:51 PM »
Good!  Going out to dinner, and didn't want to have butterflies in my stomach all evening!   :beer:

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2012, 07:10:46 PM »
"January 20th 2017 will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again."  --  President Donald J. Trump

Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2012, 07:13:26 PM »
 :0001: :0001: :0001:


I am Repub4Bush on FR '02

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2012, 07:43:12 PM »
Barone does this for a living, and has been tracking election polls long enough that he should be heard when he speaks, and he is speaking very loudly here.

This is a mere Romney landslide he is predicting, and if he is being too modest then we can expect a tsunami on Tuesday night.

Where are the details on Benghazi?? 


Offline Oceander

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2012, 09:24:53 PM »
All that matters is winning, not the margin of the win.

Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2012, 10:21:53 PM »
All that matters is winning, not the margin of the win.

Oh but the better the margin the better the Senate coattails!


I am Repub4Bush on FR '02

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2012, 10:22:42 PM »
All that matters is winning, not the margin of the win.

I quite disagree.  Romney needs as big of a win as can be arranged so he does not have to worry about recounts, and so he can claim a clear overwhelming mandate from the voters for what he needs to do.


Offline Oceander

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2012, 10:23:51 PM »
I quite disagree.  Romney needs as big of a win as can be arranged so he does not have to worry about recounts, and so he can claim a clear overwhelming mandate from the voters for what he needs to do.



He won't get an overwhelming mandate, of that I am reasonably confident.  When I speak of the "margin" I am factoring in enough of a margin to avoid the worst of the recounts.

Offline Chieftain

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2012, 10:29:50 PM »
I'm seeing electoral collage totals for Romney well over 300, and it is now a matter of how much over 300.  I have a distinct feeling that most of America with half of a functioning brain left realizes that Obama has to go.

We will know for sure in about 971/2 hours....

 :beer:

Offline Oceander

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2012, 10:37:17 PM »
I'm seeing electoral collage totals for Romney well over 300, and it is now a matter of how much over 300.  I have a distinct feeling that most of America with half of a functioning brain left realizes that Obama has to go.

We will know for sure in about 971/2 hours....

 :beer:

Yessir.  :beer:  If that's how it works out, I'll be more than happy to mail you a 6-pack of the best.  Then we can post polluted on GBR together.

Offline Scottftlc

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2012, 10:41:44 PM »
Yessir.  :beer:  If that's how it works out, I'll be more than happy to mail you a 6-pack of the best.  Then we can post polluted on GBR together.

Whether or not I could find a way to wrest a 6-pack from you, if Romney finishes this with a win, I will be posting polluted on Tuesday night.
Well, George Lewis told the Englishman, the Italian and the Jew
You can't open your mind, boys, to every conceivable point of view

...Bob Dylan

Offline Oceander

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2012, 10:45:33 PM »

Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2012, 10:57:38 PM »
Do we need a count down thread?

 :silly: :silly:


I am Repub4Bush on FR '02

Offline Oceander

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2012, 11:14:56 PM »

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2012, 11:35:03 PM »
Possibly.  I don't want to jinx anything, tho'.

Me, either. 

Franky it is good we all think it is close... that way no one is going to take it for granted and stay home.  Think Chick-fil-a........ absolutely NO ONE expected that!

Offline speekinout

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2012, 11:45:00 PM »
I'm not so sure it's going to be ok. 0bama has his 47% + fraud. That's a big hurdle to overcome. The only thing that gives me hope is that the Dims are all turning nasty. That's what people who know they're losing do.
And by Dims, I mean both the politicians and their media flunkies.

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2012, 12:16:49 AM »
Barone: Romney 315, Obama 223
Rasmussen: Romney 279, Obama 259
Gallup: Romney 315, Obama 223


And there you have it folks...

AND DON'T YOU BELIEVE A WORD OF IT!

GO OUT AND VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDED ON IT!

...because it does.

Offline Oceander

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2012, 12:25:01 AM »
Barone: Romney 315, Obama 223
Rasmussen: Romney 279, Obama 259
Gallup: Romney 315, Obama 223


And there you have it folks...

AND DON'T YOU BELIEVE A WORD OF IT!

GO OUT AND VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDED ON IT!

...because it does.

Yes  it does.  So do the lives of your parents, grandparents, children, and grandchildren.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2012, 01:06:43 AM »
What are you hearing in Florida, Luis

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2012, 01:13:21 AM »

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2012, 01:14:54 AM »


Offline Allegra

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Re: Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2012, 01:23:25 AM »
Yessir.  :beer:  If that's how it works out, I'll be more than happy to mail you a 6-pack of the best.  Then we can post polluted on GBR together.

I'm in!  I'll get some Shock Top when I go get my football tailgate supplies tomorrow.   :beer:
Don not wait to. There was not the shadow of the wall and another shade of eye gaze, we don not go Nvragr not find the light went shadow Nnvr.


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