That Q Poll Showing Obama Up by Five in Ohio Has a Flaw (Updated: PPP Too?)
October 31, 2012 - 9:15 am
Its partisan split skews much too far to the left.
Is there any reason to believe that Democrats enjoy an 8-point advantage in a state that consistently swings between the parties, mirroring the national vote? I don’t think so.
Quinnipiac may also be missing a massive trend: It has chosen not to poll PA anymore at all, saying that it’s “In the bag for Obama.” Both campaigns clearly disagree, as they’re both spending money and time in Pennsylvania in the closing days to capture it. It’s a must-win for Obama, and a nice-t0-have for Romney.Update: Public Policy Trolling gets in on the massive unnatural splits act too.
PPP: Obama leads by 5 in Ohio, 50/45 …
posted at 12:41 pm on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
No wonder David Axelrod thinks that Barack Obama can win Ohio without winning independents. According to the latest Buckeye State poll from PPP, they only need an extra five points from non-Democrats to get a majority: A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45.
Oh, let’s just skip the rest of the preliminaries and go right to the sample. The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home. In 2008, recall, the exit polls showed the electorate at 39/31/30, and the 2010 midterm put it at 36/37/28. Has anyone produced any evidence of such a wave of Democratic enthusiasm? Even the CBS/NYT/Q-poll today showed GOP enthusiasm leading by 14 in Ohio, 57/43.
PPP also is one of the few polls to show independents not breaking significantly to Romney. Instead, PPP has them both tied at 45% with six days left to go. The 10% undecided in this case would probably have to break toward the challenger, since Obama’s underwater with independents on favorability (46/48) and especially on job approval (42/50).
This poll is good for a laugh, but that’s about it.