Poll: Voters say President Obama will win
By: Kevin Robillard
October 31, 2012 06:21 AM EDT
A group of people who have accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote in the last four presidential elections thinks President Barack Obama is headed for a second term: the American people.
Fifty-four percent of Americans think Obama will win the election, compared to 32 percent who predict a Romney victory, according to Gallup polling released Wednesday but conducted before Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast. Eleven percent have no opinion.
Back in May, 56 percent believed an Obama win was likely in November, 36 percent thought Romney was likely to win, and 8 percent had no opinion, according to Gallup.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found a similar result: 53 percent of registered voters believed Obama would win, compared to 29 percent for Romney.
In the 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008 election, Americans accurately predicted the popular vote winner. The gap between Obama and Romney is similar to the gap between Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. Fifty-two percent of registered voters thought then-Vice President Gore would defeat the Texas governor, while 35 percent thought Bush would win.
The poll of 1,063 adults was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.