Quinnipiac: Obama Leads in Ohio, But Fla., Va.Too Close to Call
Wednesday, October 31, 2012 07:17 AM
By: Newsmax Wires
President Barack Obama holds a 5-point lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio, while Florida and Virginia remain too close to call, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters.
Obama leads by 50 to 45 percent in Ohio — where the state's many analysts believe the election will be decided — the same as the poll showed back on Oct. 22.
In Florida, the president has a narrow 1 percentage point lead, 48 to 47 percent, a statistical tie within the poll's margin of error. Obama had at one time a 9-point lead over Romney in Florida.
In Virginia, the poll gave Obama a 49 percent to Romney's 47 percent, also within the margin of error.
The survey was taken from Oct. 23 to 28, and was completed before the onset of the "Superstorm" Sandy.
Quinnipiac attributed the tight race in swing states to Romney closing the gender gap with women.
“The gender gap which has marked this campaign is getting smaller in Florida and Virginia,” said Quinnipiac's Assistant Director of Polling Peter Brown. “In general, women are about 10 points plus for President Obama and men are in Gov. Romney’s corner by about the same margin. This represents a slight increase for Romney among men and women. In some earlier polls, Obama’s lead among women had been in the high teens."
The poll found that Romney is doing better among men and white voters, but that those polled also felt Obama understood their needs better. Voters are about split on who can best handle the economy.
“Much of the difference between Obama’s solid lead at this point four years ago and today in the swing states and nationally is the drop in the president’s support among white voters, especially in Florida, where he trails 59 [to] 37 percent among whites, a group he lost 56 [to] 42 percent in 2008, when he got 43 percent of the white vote nationally," Brown said. “But the president is getting about 95 percent of African-Americans in these states.
“In general, voters prefer Obama on a majority of issues and characteristics and rate the two candidates roughly even on the big one — the economy. Likely voters think Obama better understands their needs and problems, but more voters see Romney as a strong leader,” he said.
According to the poll:
Likely women voters in Florida back Obama 53 to 43 percent, but that's down from September, when the president had a comfortable 58 to 39 percent lead over Romney. Men back Romney 52 to 43 percent, and white voters go Republican 59 to 37 percent. Black voters overwhelmingly support Obama 96 to 2 percent and Hispanic voters back Obama 57 to 39 percent.
Independent voters back Romney by a slim 49 to 44 percent.
The economy is the most important election issue for 51 percent of Florida voters, while 15 percent list healthcare and 9 percent cite Medicare.
Virginia likely women voters back Obama 53 to 43 percent, compared to 56 to 40 percent October 11. Men go with Romney 52 to 43 percent, compared to 52 to 45 percent earlier. White voters go to Romney 59 to 37 percent while black voters back Obama 93 to 6 percent. Independent voters go Republican 57 to 36 percent.
Likely women voters in Ohio back Obama 56 to 39 percent, virtually unchanged from October 22. Men go with Romney 50 to 44 percent, also virtually unchanged. White voters go to Romney 50 to 45 percent while black voters back Obama 92 to 2 percent. Independent voters go Republican 49 to 43 percent.
For 49 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the most important campaign issue, followed by 17 percent who name healthcare and 10 percent who name Medicare.