Day 10: Republicans have most robust day yet in Clark, still trail by 48,000 voters
UPDATE NO. 2 -- So I have data that quantifies how the GOP did so well in early voting Monday. Take a look at this chart:
So the Republicans crushed the Democrats in conservative oldsterville and rural LDSville, where the early voting sites are Monday and Tuesday. I'd expect the same when tonight's numbers come in, then a return to form once the mobile sites go into Democratic-friendly territory for the rest of the week.
UPDATE: Republicans statewide edged the Democrats in voting on Monday (Some Humboldt County ballots are outstanding, but methinks those won't help the Democrats too much). The overall numbers for Monday -- 21,120 Republicans to 20,189 Democrats. Other voters numbered 9,816.
That does not happen often. We'll see if it happens again or if Democrats re-establish control Tuesday.
More than 418,000 Nevadans have voted. That's a third of all registered voters. If turnout for the election is 80 percent statewide, that means about 44 percent of the vote is in.
Full results here.
That was close.
I'm sure some Democrats are nervous after Monday's early voting numbers came in, showing they had only eked out a 1,600-voted victory in a county where they had regularly been piling up daily margins two and three times that number.
What does it mean?
Hard to tell with one day's data. But it could mean the GOP ground game is going to produce record turnout for the base. It could mean the Republicans are so emphasizing early voting that the GOP's Election Day advantage will not be as large. And it could mean that it was just one day, and the pattern will reassert itself today.
What's clear is that the Democrats will not get close to the 83,000-voter margin they held at the end of early voting in the wave election of 2008 -- nor do I think they expected to. The Democrats continue to hang tough in Washoe -- the Republicans won Monday by about 150 votes, breaking a four-day streak by the Democrats. But it's very close in Washoe, with no sign of a big win either way for the presidential candidates.
So the Clark firewall is holding, but it's not, as I have said throughout, impregnable. And the Republicans are showing signs of increasing their turnout enough to make this interesting up and down the ticket.
The Clark numbers (early/mail):
Democrats -- 161, 738, or 48 percent
Republicans -- 112,948, or 34 percent
Others -- 61, 254, or 18 percent
Turnout by party in Clark:
Democrats -- 41.4 percent
Republicans -- 43.0 percent
Remember: The second week of early voting is always bigger than the first -- Monday was almost as big as the first day 10 days ago. If the GOP continues to expand its turnout edge, my guess is Democrats will get even more skittish.
On the other hand, that's where that registration edge becomes so important. And, finally, the real question is whether we are seeing foreshadowing of an expanded overall turnout or the GOP putting such an emphasis on early voting this cycle that it will peter out by Nov. 6.