Author Topic: Day 10: Republicans have most robust day yet in Clark, still trail by 48,000 voters  (Read 1956 times)

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Offline R4 TrumPence

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http://ralstonreports.com/blog/day-10-republicans-have-most-robust-day-yet-clark-still-trail-48000-voters#.UJDw7cXA_P-

Day 10: Republicans have most robust day yet in Clark, still trail by 48,000 voters

UPDATE NO. 2 -- So I have data that quantifies how the GOP did so well in early voting Monday. Take a look at this chart:

So the Republicans crushed the Democrats in conservative oldsterville and rural LDSville, where the early voting sites are Monday and Tuesday. I'd expect the same when tonight's numbers come in, then a return to form once the mobile sites go into Democratic-friendly territory for the rest of the week.

 

UPDATE: Republicans statewide edged the Democrats in voting on Monday (Some Humboldt County ballots are outstanding, but methinks those won't help the Democrats too much). The overall numbers for Monday -- 21,120 Republicans to 20,189 Democrats. Other voters numbered 9,816.

That does not happen often. We'll see if it happens again or if Democrats re-establish control Tuesday.

More than 418,000 Nevadans have voted. That's a third of all registered voters. If turnout for the election is 80 percent statewide, that means about 44 percent of the vote is in.

Full results here.

That was close.

I'm sure some Democrats are nervous after Monday's early voting numbers came in, showing they had only eked out a 1,600-voted victory in a county where they had regularly been piling up daily margins two and three times that number.

What does it mean?

Hard to tell with one day's data. But it could mean the GOP ground game is going to produce record turnout for the base. It could mean the Republicans are so emphasizing early voting that the GOP's Election Day advantage will not be as large. And it could mean that it was just one day, and the pattern will reassert itself today.

What's clear is that the Democrats will not get close to the 83,000-voter margin they held at the end of early voting in the wave election of 2008 -- nor do I think they expected to. The Democrats continue to hang tough in Washoe -- the Republicans won Monday by about 150 votes, breaking a four-day streak by the Democrats. But it's very close in Washoe, with no sign of a big win either way for the presidential candidates.

So the Clark firewall is holding, but it's not, as I have said throughout, impregnable. And the Republicans are showing signs of increasing their turnout enough to make this interesting up and down the ticket.

The Clark numbers (early/mail):

Democrats -- 161, 738, or 48 percent

Republicans -- 112,948, or 34 percent

Others -- 61, 254, or 18 percent

Turnout by party in Clark:

Democrats -- 41.4 percent

Republicans -- 43.0 percent

Remember: The second week of early voting is always bigger than the first -- Monday was almost as big as the first day 10 days ago. If the GOP continues to expand its turnout edge, my guess is Democrats will get even more skittish.

On the other hand, that's where that registration edge becomes so important. And, finally, the real question is whether we are seeing foreshadowing of an expanded overall turnout or the GOP putting such an emphasis on early voting this cycle that it will peter out by Nov. 6.

 

 

 


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Offline mountaineer

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They're already counting early ballots?  :shrug:
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Offline A.Hun

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They're already counting early ballots?  :shrug:

I believe all they can do is publish the voter's declared party. The votes can't be released yet.

Offline Scottftlc

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This is Ralston...a very far left Democrat shill. 
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Offline mountaineer

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I believe all they can do is publish the voter's declared party. The votes can't be released yet.
Ah, thanks. That sort of  info isn't going to help the prognosticators in states like W.Va., where most Democrats will vote for Romney, early or otherwise.
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Offline A.Hun

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Ah, thanks. That sort of  info isn't going to help the prognosticators in states like W.Va., where most Democrats will vote for Romney, early or otherwise.

Exactly. A lot of Dems will be voting Romney this time around, across the nation.

Offline EC

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Exactly. A lot of Dems will be voting Romney this time around, across the nation.

They'll never admit it though.
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Offline A.Hun

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They'll never admit it though.

I agree, but you know what? I don't care!!! They can lie all they want to their liberal friends as long as they vote against the one...a secret ballot is a wonderful thing!

Offline Oceander

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Exactly. A lot of Dems will be voting Romney this time around, across the nation.

Agreed.  And a lot of them, and a lot of the indies and moderates who voted for Obama in 2008 will not finally make up their minds until they're actually in the voting booth, when there is nothing else to do but do it.

Obama may still win - we're in the realm of political Heisenberg Uncertainty - but for a fact he will not have the same turnout he had in 2008; even something as simple as the law of regression to the mean implies that his turnout will not be as high as it was in 2008.


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