Author Topic: Oh My: Romney Leads 52/46 Among Early Voters Nationally?  (Read 674 times)

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Offline Rapunzel

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Oh My: Romney Leads 52/46 Among Early Voters Nationally?
« on: October 29, 2012, 11:31:34 PM »

Oh My: Romney Leads 52/46 Among Early Voters Nationally?
posted at 10:55 pm on October 29, 2012 by Guy Benson

This data point was flagged by Breitbart’s John Nolte, who was initially thrown off by the mundane, nothing-to-see-here headline, “In US, 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots.”  But then there’s this, fresh from Gallup:

Am I missing something, or is this a rather significant development?  Isn’t early voting supposed to be Democrats’ secret weapon, with which they run up the score, then dare the GOP to catch up on Election Day?  And unlike the snapshot national polls that we obsess over each day (many of which are based upon samples of 800-1,200 respondents), this survey has a massive sample size of 3,312 registered voters.  Of those who say they’ve already voted nationwide, the D/R/I is 33/37/29, or R+4.  Glance over that chart one more time.  If those stats are even close to representative of the 2012 electorate, Obama is going to lose.  Right?  Or have I managed to blind myself to a glaring caveat or two?

UPDATE – I suppose Obama could be cleaning up in swing state early voting, and Romney’s apparent lead is being banked in places where it won’t ultimately matter.  But as Josh Jordan has written, major national trends and CW in the battlegrounds have to collide at some point.  It will be interesting to hear Team O’s spin on this…though they may just shout “outlier,” as they have with much of the Gallup data in recent weeks.

UPDATE II- Two more reasons I’m taking something of a “too-good-to-be-true” approach to this poll: (1) I just can’t reconcile it with the numerous other polls showing a close race.  And this election at least feels like a close race.  (2) Gallup’s write up seems decidedly nonchalant about their own information.  Here’s a direct quote: “Political impact of early voting looks minimal…Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.”

UPDATE III – But wait, there’s more.  Here are Gallup’s stats from October 28, 2008: Obama led in early voting by 15 points (55/40).  His election day edge was just three points.  He ended up winning by seven points.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Oh My: Romney Leads 52/46 Among Early Voters Nationally?
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2012, 11:39:31 PM »
This  thread is posted over at DU and it is a hoot! I guy was about to commit suicide until the other idiots chimed in and told him Gallop and Ras were all lies
Marmitist (24 posts)
6. Let me set your mind at ease...

Rasmussen is a Republican hack, and has a built in 2-5 point Republican bias because of the content of their sample. They deliberately rig the sample composition to favor Rightists.

#2, Drudge is celebrating an alleged Romney advantage in overall early voting, which, even if it's true, only indicates that the sample of early voters is comprised of mostly those in Red States. What really matters is how early voting is breaking in swing states, which, according to reputable pollsters, is going HEAVILY in Obama's favor.

So chillax!
   :silly: :silly:

CoffeeCat (19,148 posts)
11. Rasmussen is run by...

A well known partisan conservative.

Here's a tip, look for Gallup and Rasmussen to level off and reflect the true reality 5-7 days before Election Day.

They play these propaganda games, but they can't play them too close to the election. Otherwise, they lose credibility.

Most national polls (which aren't as important as state polls) show a very tight race with several showing Obama ahead by 1-2. Romney has lost his 4-5 point advantage that he garnered with the first debate.

The state polls look very good for Obama, and these are the polls that count.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 11:41:19 PM by Repub4R² »

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