What is worrisome about Ohio is the number of people who have already voted and the percentage that is believed to be for Obama. I know it's less than 4 years ago but still worrisome.
I really don't understand Ohio being this hard to win but hey if that's the way it is, then that's the way it is.
However if that 50-46 number in swing states is correct then a number of states are going to fall Romney's way.
According to those who've crunched numbers before, early voters tend to be more democrats than republicans. However, the polls are not adjusted for that fact and, if I recall, those voters are included in the "likely voters" category, which effectively means that democrats, again, get overrepresented in likely voter polls.
In other words, the polls are basically still skewed toward the democrats, even when the skewing is not intentional.