Author Topic: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race  (Read 1205 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« on: October 25, 2012, 02:56:17 PM »
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm

Released October 25, 2012

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise

Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset

Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected

Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing.



snip

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Online Bigun

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2012, 02:58:59 PM »
That analysis is as good as anything the MSM and their pollsters are producing IMHO!

Their methodology is sound!

Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2012, 02:59:12 PM »
Oh my...!


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Offline Emma

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2012, 03:28:14 PM »
Please let it be true!!!

Does anyone remember all this skewing of the polls in 2008?

Online truth_seeker

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2012, 04:05:56 PM »
Watched Charlie Cook, and Amy Walters of ABC, discuss their latest analysis, last night on C-span, and Aspen Institute.

They both said essentially it is a tie, with the electoral college edge going to Obama.

They said Romney is spending ZERO $ in Pennsylvanie, whichmeans he has written it off.

So I'm going to reserve my judgement about this "Unskewed" prediction, until studying it some more. I don't want to get sucked into unrealistic wishful thinking.
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Online mystery-ak

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2012, 04:07:43 PM »
Watched Charlie Cook, and Amy Walters of ABC, discuss their latest analysis, last night on C-span, and Aspen Institute.

They both said essentially it is a tie, with the electoral college edge going to Obama.

They said Romney is spending ZERO $ in Pennsylvanie, whichmeans he has written it off.

So I'm going to reserve my judgement about this "Unskewed" prediction, until studying it some more. I don't want to get sucked into unrealistic wishful thinking.

I agree...believe it at your own risk...lol

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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2012, 04:14:04 PM »
Watched Charlie Cook, and Amy Walters of ABC, discuss their latest analysis, last night on C-span, and Aspen Institute.

They both said essentially it is a tie, with the electoral college edge going to Obama.

They said Romney is spending ZERO $ in Pennsylvanie, whichmeans he has written it off.

So I'm going to reserve my judgement about this "Unskewed" prediction, until studying it some more. I don't want to get sucked into unrealistic wishful thinking.

Interesting because Ed Rendell said Romney just might be a landslide surprise in PA........

Offline Gazoo

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2012, 04:15:31 PM »
Hey WHI said Oregon going to Romney possibly.

No jobs and foreclosures causes these maps. I will believe it when I see it.

But...it makes more sense that when NC,VA flip back red so does Ohio and PA had a large Obama undervote...
« Last Edit: October 25, 2012, 04:15:58 PM by Gazoo »
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Online Oceander

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Re: The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2012, 12:34:44 PM »
Watched Charlie Cook, and Amy Walters of ABC, discuss their latest analysis, last night on C-span, and Aspen Institute.

They both said essentially it is a tie, with the electoral college edge going to Obama.

They said Romney is spending ZERO $ in Pennsylvanie, whichmeans he has written it off.

So I'm going to reserve my judgement about this "Unskewed" prediction, until studying it some more. I don't want to get sucked into unrealistic wishful thinking.

I totally agree.  No matter what either side says, I believe the race is quite tight and will be at least up to Nov. 5th, and it could very well end up being a squeaker in the polling booths.  All I hope is that we don't end up with electoral college votes that are so close the democrats decide it's worth attacking the votes in one or more states.


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