Author Topic: Polls with Large Voter Samples All Favor Romney; Smaller, Less Reliable Polls All Favor Obama. Why?  (Read 431 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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October 24, 2012 - 7:03 pm

RealClearPolitics publishes a continuously updated average of all major national presidential polls — as of this evening, their chart looks like this:

(Note that the RCP chart is updated frequently, so that by the time you read this, it may be slightly different.)

But whenever I check the RCP average, including today, I notice something odd: The larger the polling sample size, the more the poll favors Mitt Romney.

I’ve copied the RCP data and pasted it in here in a format that I can re-order. First, here’s how RCP organizes the chart, which they do chronologically, with the most recent poll at the top:


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Online massadvj

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I read the whole article.  Since I teach marketing research, I always find this kind of stuff fascinating.  I like his hypothesis that the smaller samples have high hang-up and non-response rates, and non-respondents are more likely to vote Romney.

On the other hand, if a pollster is conducting phone surveys via landlines, that sample is likely to skew more heavily TOWARD Romney as the population of landline owners is older and more stable than the population of voters.

This thing is so close, it really comes down to who shows up to vote, and that is more problematic for OPapaDoc than it is for us.  Our people can't wait until November 6, and they are going to have to show some self-control to keep from damaging the ballot, they will be pressing down so hard.
"She only coughs when she lies."

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