Author Topic: AP poll: Romney 47, Obama 45  (Read 681 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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AP poll: Romney 47, Obama 45
« on: October 25, 2012, 08:39:01 AM »
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/?hp=bh

AP poll: Romney 47, Obama 45
By ALEXANDER BURNS |
10/25/12 6:40 AM EDT

The Republican's lead with likely voters comes as a result of closing the gap with women, AP says:

Quote

    Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President Barack Obama's 16-point advantage among women, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney's edge among men.

    Those churning gender dynamics leave the presidential race still a virtual dead heat, with Romney favored by 47 percent of likely voters and Obama by 45 percent, a result within the poll's margin of sampling error, the survey shows.

    After a commanding first debate performance and a generally good month, Romney has gained ground with Americans on a number of important fronts, including their confidence in how he would handle the economy and their impressions of his ability to understand their problems.

Recent national polls have shown an inconsistent picture of the gender gap, though it does seem that Romney has improved his standing with women to some degree since last month. The 2-point margin is consistent with some other polls, like the Gallup tracker, that show Romney holding onto a very slim edge with likely voters as his bounce from the first debate levels off.

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Offline Oceander

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Re: AP poll: Romney 47, Obama 45
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2012, 11:21:20 AM »
Keep in mind, folks, that a lot of these polls are still overweighting democrats on the assumption that turnout for the democrats will be at least as strong as it was in 2008, if not stronger.  Take that (rather unrealistic) assumption away, and the polls become less of a dead heat.

Offline Bigun

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Re: AP poll: Romney 47, Obama 45
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2012, 11:28:52 AM »
Keep in mind, folks, that a lot of these polls are still overweighting democrats on the assumption that turnout for the democrats will be at least as strong as it was in 2008, if not stronger.  Take that (rather unrealistic) assumption away, and the polls become less of a dead heat.

Absolutely right!

Offline Bigun

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