Author Topic: PPP shows Romney within one point in Ohio  (Read 668 times)

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Offline pjohns

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PPP shows Romney within one point in Ohio
« on: October 20, 2012, 04:12:16 PM »
The (Democrat-leaning) Public Policy Polling now shows a very tight race in the state of Ohio, with President Obama leading by a scant 49-48 percent.

As the pertinent article notes:

Quote
PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from a 51-46 advantage a week ago. Romney's closing the gap thanks to a lead among independents (49/42) and because the Republican base is continuing to become more unified around him with 90% of GOP partisans now saying they'll support him compared to 85% a week ago. Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this week 48-39, but that doesn't seem to extend to more people voting for him.

The Buckeye State could go either way.

Here is the link:  Romney pulls within 1 in Ohio - Public Policy Polling

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: PPP shows Romney within one point in Ohio
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2012, 04:14:30 PM »
Paul Ryan was going to Ohio from PA today.

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: PPP shows Romney within one point in Ohio
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2012, 04:21:21 PM »
The (Democrat-leaning) Public Policy Polling now shows a very tight race in the state of Ohio, with President Obama leading by a scant 49-48 percent.

As the pertinent article notes:

The Buckeye State could go either way.

Here is the link:  Romney pulls within 1 in Ohio - Public Policy Polling

By now, we are all aware that many of these polls are skewed heavily toward Democrats.

The poll cited here is no different: D+8

But here's another twist for you all: this PPP poll is also skewed toward women by 8 points: Male-46% Female-54%.

Demographically speaking, the normal sample ought to be: Male-49% Female-51%.

Make of that what you will, but with a gender gap of about 20% this year, it makes a significant difference in the final results.
Liberalism isn't really about making the world a better place. It's about reassuring the elites that they are good people for wanting to rule over it.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: PPP shows Romney within one point in Ohio
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2012, 11:43:02 PM »
http://publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-pulls-within-1-in-ohio.html

October 20, 2012
Romney pulls within 1 in Ohio

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from a 51-46 advantage a week ago. Romney's closing the gap thanks to a lead among independents (49/42) and because the Republican base is continuing to become more unified around him with 90% of GOP partisans now saying they'll support him compared to 85% a week ago. Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this week 48-39, but that doesn't seem to extend to more people voting for him.

Obama does have one big advantage in Ohio though- he's already winning the election there. 21% of voters in the state say they've already voted, and they report having supported Obama 66/34. Romney has the 52/44 advantage among those yet to cast their ballots but obviously it's easier to count on votes that are already in the bank.

There are some troubling signs for Obama in the poll though. Ohioans trust Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin and trust him more on Libya 49/47. Obama had the advantage on each of those issues in our poll last weekend. Voters do trust Obama over Romney by a 52/44 margin on women's issues, and Obama leads 55/41 with female voters in the poll.

Romney's growing momentum in Ohio is built on strong support from men (57/41) and white voters (55/42). Obama continues to have the small overall advantage based on his strength with women, African Americans (91/9), and young voters (52/39).

Other notes from Ohio:

-Sherrod Brown continues to lead in the Senate race, 49-44 over Josh Mandel. That's a little bit closer than it was last week at 49/42, reflecting conservative voters unifying around Mandel a little bit as the election nears. Brown is holding onto his own support though. He has a narrowly positive approval rating at 44/43, while Mandel continues to be quite unpopular with 38% of voters rating him favorably to 50% with a negative opinion.

-There's been a lot of controversy about early voting the weekend before the election in Ohio. 57% of voters think it should be available to everyone, compared to 35% who think it should not. Among independents the spread is 60/31 in favor of full early voting. The whole controversy is taking a bit of a toll on Secretary of State Jon Husted's image- 22% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 29% with a negative one.

-Prospects don't look good for Ohio's referendum on creating an independent redistricting commission. 35% of voters say they plan to vote for it 48% who are opposed. Democrats favor it (52/33), but Republicans are more united in their opposition (17/65).

Full results here


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