Historical Analysis Shows Every President Below 50% in Mid-September in the Gallup Poll has Lost the Election
Obama at 47% – Chart
Jay Cost, at the Weekly Standard, has put together this chart showing where incumbent Presidents have been in the Gallup Poll in mid-September. As you see, and as Cost points out, every incumbent President who has been below 50% in mid-September has lost. Every incumbent President above 50% has ended up the winner. Right now, Barack Obama is at 47%. Read More from Jay Cost’s analysis.
1980 is a very interesting data point because it is the only data point in which the incumbent and challenger were both at the same percentage. It was also another election where things were on the cusp of a major change.
I won't vote for Clinton, but I cannot vote for Trump. How could I explain to my daughter why I supported a man who sees her as nothing more than a piece of meat, a piece of a$$ for him to grope for his own private pleasure.
"Trump supporter" - the very definition of an SFI