Tracking the tracking polls: Mitt Romney's edge grows again today
By ANDREW MALCOLMPosted 09:38 AM ET
Are you confused too by all the various polls flying around these days?
Here are some clarifying updates:
IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll: This newspaper's historically accurate daily tracking poll of likely voters down the campaign stretch shows Mitt Romney has whittled Barack Obama's lead down to a narrow 1.5 point margin, 46.8% to 45.3%. With all appearances of a new tie developing.
The Republican has accomplished this by holding his five-point lead among independents, 45% to 40%, while constructing an enlarged five-point lead among seniors, up from a three-point margin.
Romney's strongest support comes from a middle-aged, conservative, white suburban Protestant male in the South with some college education who earns more than $75,000 a year. Obama's strong suit would be a liberal black, urban single woman with a high school education in the Northeast with an annual income under $30,000 and no particular religion.
Romney wins among married women, 55% to 41%, while Obama takes single women, 63% to 26%.
RASMUSSEN: Today's latest tracking poll of likely voters from Rasmussen Reports, which includes one night's results after this week's Romney-Obama debate, shows Romney now expanding his one-point lead to two points with Thursday's results, 49% to 47%.
Obama's lead among women is now down to four points, while Romney's lead among men is up to 10.
Each candidate leads among their party members with Obama getting 85% of Democrats. But Romney, whose GOP support was once supposed to be shaky among party loyalists, is pulling better than the president, 87% of Republicans.
Yesterday's Rasmussen results gave the Republican a slim 49%-48% lead over Obama, compared with Obama's 49% to 47% lead before any of this month's presidential debates.
GALLUP: The latest tracking polls results from the Gallup Poll through Wednesday noon showed a Romney lead of 51% to 45%, an increase of one point for Romney and a decrease of one point for the Democrat incumbent. (Among registered voters it's 48% Romney to 46% Obama.)
The Romney lead has been growing steadily as the polling time frame moved through and past the first presidential debate Oct. 3, when Romney was by far the consensus victor.
New results from the seven-day rolling Gallup average are due out at 10 a.m. Pacific today.
A USAToday/Gallup Poll shows Romney leading Obama, 50%-46% among likely voters in swing states and 48% tp 47% among likely voters in the 38 other states.
Romney easily leads among male likely voters in swing states (52%-44%) and in the 38 others (54%-41%). And the Republican is coming on strongly among female likely voters, having closed to within one point of Obama's once whopping lead in the swing states, 49% Obama to 48% Romney.
"Women went into the (first) debate actively disliking Romney," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, "and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."
Women proved to be a crucial part of Obama's victory coalition four years ago. While results showed the Democrat lead John McCain by only a single point, Obama won by 13 among females.
Given a credible alternative in Romney, if they are now drifting away from Obama over his onslaught of disputed ads about Romney's record, plans and character or simply over the lack of any Obama second-term vision, that could be a crippling blow to the Chicagoan's hopes of avoiding a return there come January.
Rasmussen has also conducted statewide polls in Nevada, New Hampshire and Montana.
Obama clung to a three-point lead in Nevada. Romney had a one-point lead in New Hampshire and had built an eight-point lead in Montana, where his coattails could also benefit Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg in a closely-contested struggle with incumbent freshman Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.