Poll: Romney takes a five point lead (Updated)
By BYRON TAU |
10/15/12 3:48 PM EDT
A new Gallup/USA Today survey shows Mitt Romney moving into a five point lead against President Obama across thirteen swing states.
The poll finds Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. Among registered voters, Obama maintains a slight lead — edging Romney 49 percent to 47 percent.
It's a pattern that's repeated itself in post-debate polling — with Romney making big gains among likely voters while Obama maintains his edge with those least likely to vote.
Romney has also made huge gains with female voters in the Gallup/USA Today survey. Romney and Obama are now tied at 48 percent a piece among likely female voters. Among likely male voters, Romney leads by 12 points — 54 percent to 42 percent.
In other national surveys, Obama has a big advantage among women voters. Unlike in their swing state survey, a separate Gallup national survey still shows him leading 52 percent to 44 percent.
The swing state poll surveyed voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The margin of error for Gallup/USA Today's poll is plus or minus four to six percent.
UPDATE: The Obama campaign is blasting the poll results as "flawed," firing off a memo from pollster Joel Benenson that asserts Gallup erred in screening likely voters. Benenson says the results are "far out of line with other public pollsters" and he points specifically to the finding that Obama and Romney are tied among women, "an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll."
We emailed Gallup for a response and will update this post when we hear back.
UPDATE 2: Gallup emails with a statement from editor in chief Frank Newport, who defends the ways it screens likely voters. “Gallup’s likely voter model predicted a slightly more Democratic outcome than the actual result in the 2008 and 2004 presidential elections (i.e., predicted Obama winning by a slightly larger margin than he won by, and predicted Bush winning by a slightly lower margin than he won by). In both presidential elections the likely voter model was more predictive than the registered voter model.”gallup