Author Topic: The state of the presidential race in Ohio  (Read 2019 times)

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Offline pjohns

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The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« on: October 15, 2012, 03:15:03 PM »
I am beginning to think that the road to the presidency leads through Ohio.  If Gov. Romney loses The Buckeye State, it is still possible that he could win the presidency.  Theoretically, at least.  But almost all of the other battleground states would then have to go his way; which is certainly not an impossibility, but it is an improbability.

Moreover, for the Republican candidate to win the presidency without having first won the state of Ohio is simply unprecedented.  Of course, there is always a first time, as the old saying goes.  But to lean upon such a very thin reed does not strike me as being especially wise.

That is why I am looking very closely now at the latest polls from the state of Ohio.

The RealClearPolitics average shows President Obama up in Ohio by just over two percentage points, 48.3 percent to 46.1 percent.  But that includes the Democrat-friendly Public Policy Polling (which shows a five-point lead for the president), along with two other outliers:  The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll shows a six-point advantage for the president, and the CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows President Obama up by four points.

A slight majority of Ohio polls show the race very tight there:  two polls have President Obama up by a single digit (Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA), whereas two others have Gov. Romney up by the same margin (Gravis Marketing and ARG).   

Here is the link:  RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Does anyone have any thoughts on this matter?

Offline Scottftlc

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2012, 03:22:24 PM »
Since you asked me today, I think all the momentum in Ohio is toward Romney and I don't think the polls are picking it up as they continue to over-sample Democrats, thinking the turnout will be like 2008.

Today, I think Romney is on path to win Ohio comfortably (meaning by 4 points or maybe more).  Of course, I might think something else in a few days.  That's the way this election season has been.
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Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2012, 03:22:35 PM »
I am hopeful on this as far as Ohio goes. Romney and Ryan have been camped out there for days drawing huge crowds! Aside from early voting, I think we take Ohio in the end!


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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2012, 03:28:29 PM »
The Suffolk poll guy who told BOR last week that they are not even going to poll Florida, Virginia or NC any longer was on with Megyn Kelly last hour and said Romney is still down as much as 5 in Ohio and he is doubtful Romney can pull out Ohio.

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2012, 03:35:50 PM »
My question remains...which demographic is going to give Obama more votes than he received from that same demographic in 2008?

He can only go down, and the GOP can only go up.

Given that, PLUS a more motivated GOP voting block than in 2008 AND a less motivated Democratic voting lock than 2008, I can see Romney winning in a landslide.

Cockeyed optimist that I am...

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2012, 03:39:11 PM »
My question remains...which demographic is going to give Obama more votes than he received from that same demographic in 2008?

He can only go down, and the GOP can only go up.

Given that, PLUS a more motivated GOP voting block than in 2008 AND a less motivated Democratic voting lock than 2008, I can see Romney winning in a landslide.

Cockeyed optimist that I am...

Fraud will make up for the dropouts .. JMHO... but the only way we win is with a massive turnout that cannot be undone by fraud.

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2012, 03:49:27 PM »
My question remains...which demographic is going to give Obama more votes than he received from that same demographic in 2008?

After considerable demographic research, there is only one discernible group that I have identified as likely to increase its support for Obama:



Semi-literate, overweight gum-chewing slackers with free phones on welfare.

Admittedly, it's a small sample.
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2012, 10:58:50 PM »
After considerable demographic research, there is only one discernible group that I have identified as likely to increase its support for Obama:



Semi-literate, overweight gum-chewing slackers with free phones on welfare.

Admittedly, it's a small sample.

They all voted for him the first time.

Offline Oceander

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2012, 06:37:04 AM »
They all voted for him the first time.

Yeah, but this time they're going to vote for him twice!

That, and the dead, may be the two constituencies from whom Obama hopes to get a larger number of votes this year than he did in 2008.

Offline massadvj

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2012, 07:36:00 AM »
It's going to be very close.  When I was in OH over the summer it appeared to me that the state was unwinnable by Romney.  Now I think it might be possible, but as of today, Romney hasn't closed the deal there.  There are two things in his favor: (1) Republican governor and mostly GOP establishment in power; and (2) The Republicans smell blood and will therefore turn out.
"She only coughs when she lies."

Offline happyg

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2012, 08:57:47 AM »
Everyone I personally know around here who voted for Obama last election, have changed to Romney or Johnson. Allen County Ohio is a republican area, but we don't have the numbers to beat out the large cities like Cleveland and Toledo. The unions are hot and heavy and are putting people on the streets, and are going to spend big money in the final weeks. I was hoping they would go broke by now, fighting Gov. Kasich. Also, there was a four month old Steel Worker's Strike at the refinery, but the union didn't spend much money on it, and the workers finally went back to work without a contract. I don't know if that will bode well for the unions or republicans.

Online aligncare

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 09:34:50 AM »
Yeah, but this time they're going to vote for him twice!

That, and the dead, may be the two constituencies from whom Obama hopes to get a larger number of votes this year than he did in 2008.

Absolutely, you've identified a serious concern here, Ocean.  Among certain groups there is an even greater imperative to reelect than their was to elect Obama.

Certain groups need to avoid the ultimate insult of America seeming to reject it's first black president and the temptation to avoid that by any means necessary will be very strong in certain states, certain districts and certain wards--even more than is customarily expected from Democrats. 
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2012, 10:01:04 AM »

Offline Oceander

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2012, 10:19:47 AM »
I can't engage in conspiratorial imaginings about elections.

I grant that there is fraud, I posit that it there are no clean hands in that, so fraud washes out fraud.

I have to believe in the basic integrity of the system, because if it is in fact that easy to steal an election, then nothing really matter anymore...does it?

I more or less agree.  I was being tongue-in-cheek when I said the Obamaphone drones would vote twice; however, considering the recent revelations of democrat party employees actively assisting people to commit election fraud, and given the apparent neck-and-neck nature of this election, I cannot entirely discount the possibility that democrat-led electoral fraud may be the determinative factor here.

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2012, 11:27:38 AM »
I more or less agree.  I was being tongue-in-cheek when I said the Obamaphone drones would vote twice; however, considering the recent revelations of democrat party employees actively assisting people to commit election fraud, and given the apparent neck-and-neck nature of this election, I cannot entirely discount the possibility that democrat-led electoral fraud may be the determinative factor here.

You don't for a second believe that all election fraud is unique to one party, do you?

Online aligncare

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2012, 11:52:07 AM »
I grant that there is fraud, I posit that it there are no clean hands in that, so fraud washes out fraud.

So you agree that election fraud is a fact.  All I am saying is this election will witness rampant fraud from the left and certain other non-ideological groups.

There's more than the liberal agenda at stake.  There is an unprecedented racial component this reelection. And I'm not talking about a conspiracy.  I'm talking about the same motivating factors that have kept affirmative action--unconstitutional, institutionalized racism--alive all these years.  Remember the night stick wielding Black Panthers last election?  Get ready for more of that. They are "owed" this election.
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Offline massadvj

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2012, 12:19:00 PM »
You don't for a second believe that all election fraud is unique to one party, do you?

I was a full-time political operative for the Democrats in California for 6 years.  I can tell you unequivocally that we played dirtier and engaged in criminal electioneering to a far greater degree than the Republicans. 

Yes, there were shenanigans on both sides.  But they were like petty criminals and we were like felons.  We leveraged the fact that we had thousands of people who were paid by the unions to help us, and that made it easier to have people vote multiple times, steal yard signs, harass candidates, etc.

Republicans are mostly too involved in their businesses and daily lives to get that involved in politics.  For Democrats, political power is all they have.
"She only coughs when she lies."

Offline Oceander

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2012, 12:40:25 PM »

Offline Oceander

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2012, 12:41:50 PM »
You don't for a second believe that all election fraud is unique to one party, do you?

You put too strong an emphasis on the matter.  "Unique"?  No.  Generally engaged in by one party?  Yes.  Which party?  The democrats and their affiliated left-wing organizations; I don't think I need to hunt too far for strong evidence of this fact.

Offline massadvj

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Re: The state of the presidential race in Ohio
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2012, 02:00:32 PM »
I don't agree that the fraud will be rampant; I merely said that I cannot completely discount the possibility that the fraud that will occur might tip the balance given how close the election appears to be right now.

It doesn't have to be rampant.  The marginal races and key states are few.  They can marshal the resources where needed. 
"She only coughs when she lies."


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