John Zogby, Contributor
Veteran pollster and political pundit
10/14/2012 @ 7:31PM |5,260 views
Brand New Nationwide Poll: Obama 47%, Romney 44%
A NewsmaxZogby Poll of 863 likely voters taken on Friday and Saturday show President Barack Obama in a dead heat with GOP challenger Governor Mitt Romney – Obama 47% to Romney 44%. Nine percent are undecided. The nationwide online poll has a margin of error of +/-3.4 points.
The joint venture between the Florida-based publisher and my polling firm will feature tracking polls in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and nationally right up to Election Day.
The President continues to poll solidly among Democrats (88%-7%), Hispanics (62%-30%), African Americans (95%-1%), women (51%40%), Catholics (53%-42%), liberals (91%-5%), and moderates (56%-29%).
Mr. Romney is doing very well among Republicans (86%-9%), voters over 65 (58%-35%), men (49%-43%), evangelicals (62%-28%), married voters (50%-40%), conservatives (77%-18%), and investors (56%-39%). He has opened up a lead among weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (50%-39%).
The President still needs to worry about reduced support among young voters. While he leads by 22 points (58%-36%), that is well below his 66%-30% victory in 2008. His meager lead of 49% to 45% among the very important Creative Class can also hurt him. Economist and author Richard Florida has identified the economic and social importance of these knowledge sector leaders. Their support for Mr. Obama in 2008 was crucial in such states as Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Colorado – helping to turn those previously red states into blue states.
Only 43% feel the President deserves to be re-elected, while 49% say “it is time for someone new”. This sentiment was tied prior to the first Presidential debate.
For his part, Mr. Romney needs to be concerned about his lead among white voters. He does lead 53% to 37%, but Senator John McCain got 57% of the white vote and lost in 2008. In that election, whites represented 74% of the total vote, a share that could be reduced by a few points this November. He is also still not connecting with NASCAR fans as the President still leads the former Governor by five points, 48%-44%.
The new poll not only shows Vice President Joe Biden receiving slightly higher grades for his debate performance on Thursday night: 49% scored his debate performance as A and B (18% A, 31% B), 19% C, and 27% as D and F (13% D, 14% F). Congressman Ryan got an A and B score of 46% (13% A, 33% B), 30% C, but a lower combined D and F of 17% (9% D, 8% F).