Author Topic: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:  (Read 3196 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« on: October 09, 2012, 10:23:17 PM »
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 03:10:36 PM by mysteR˛y-ak »

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Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 45% - Romney 45%
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2012, 10:27:13 PM »
300 a day of what? likely voters, reg. voters or just whatever democrat answers the phone?


I am Repub4Bush on FR '02

Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 45% - Romney 45%
« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2012, 03:37:35 PM »
Romney takes slight lead over Obama in presidential race

Romney takes slight lead over Obama in presidential race

Wednesday, October 10, 2012 1:31 p.m. CDT

By Deborah Charles

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican challenger Mitt Romney has pulled ahead of President Barack Obama in the race for the White House for the first time in more than a month and leads 45 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Wednesday.

With just under four weeks to go before the November 6 election, Romney's surge followed his strong performance against Obama in last week's debate and erased a jump in support that Obama had enjoyed following the September 3-6 Democratic National Convention.

The poll showed that voters have warmed to Romney across a range of policy issues following the debate.

On Tuesday, the tracking poll had the two candidates tied at 45 percent. Obama had a steady lead in the daily tracking poll for most of September after the Democratic convention but Romney narrowed the gap after the debate and finally inched ahead on Wednesday.

"We have always felt that this was going to be a very close election and the numbers now reflect that - they are head to head, which is where they were pre- both conventions," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

"This is where they'll remain, with some movement of course, until we hit Election Day," Clark said.

'SIGNIFICANT GAINS'

Romney gained significant ground against Obama among registered voters on a number of economic policy issues from October 6-10, compared to the four-day period leading up to the October 3 debate on domestic policy.

"Romney has made significant gains in terms of his perception with voters," Clark said. "He has really caught up to Obama on some key issues. The debate was perhaps the trigger, and the positive coverage Romney gained from the debate ... is also part of the explanation on this."

Poll respondents said Romney was best placed to handle the U.S. economy, help fix unemployment and deal with the federal deficit.

Romney's best showing against Obama was for his plan to tackle the federal deficit. A total of 39 percent of registered voters said Romney had a better approach to the deficit, compared to 27 percent for Obama. The two were tied at 33 percent on that issue before the debate.

While Obama lost some ground to Romney, poll respondents still said the president had the better approach on healthcare, the Social Security retirement program, the Medicare health insurance program for the elderly and disabled, gay marriage and the fight against terrorism.

On taxes, Obama still had an edge over Romney but the president's support dropped by 7 percentage points while Romney's rose by 4 percentage points.

The online survey of 1,027 likely voters was conducted between October 6 and October 10. The precision of the poll is measured using a credibility interval, which is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Among the 1,199 registered voters questioned, the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.3 percent.

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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2012, 03:11:13 PM »

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Offline Oceander

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2012, 03:20:19 PM »
Nope, as Axelrod said, no momentum there; move on, nothing to see.

Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2012, 07:26:02 PM »

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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2012, 03:55:56 PM »

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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2012, 08:04:11 PM »

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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2012, 02:08:43 PM »

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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2012, 04:26:41 PM »

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Offline Oceander

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2012, 09:55:16 PM »
Interesting how this poll has been gradually trending in Romney's favor, without too much volatility.

Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2012, 04:45:10 PM »

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Offline Oceander

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2012, 06:00:36 PM »
We'll have to wait at least one or two days to see if this is noise or a reversal of the trend.

Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2012, 04:07:19 PM »

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Offline Oceander

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2012, 04:13:43 PM »
What is the overweighting for democrats on this poll?

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2012, 04:15:49 PM »
What is the overweighting for democrats on this poll?

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 24-28, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,133 American registered voters and 795 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted, as of 10.15.12. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for Registered Voters and 4.0 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

Offline Oceander

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2012, 04:19:13 PM »
An online poll - I missed that - that makes it basically incredible.  For one thing, since an online poll requires respondents to find it, there is a self-selection bias inherent in online polls that is absent from polls where the pollster goes looking for the respondents.  That in and of itself should be enough to render this poll meaningless and essentially political only.

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2012, 05:39:48 PM »

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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking:
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2012, 04:13:35 PM »

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