Author Topic: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen  (Read 863 times)

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Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« on: October 06, 2012, 06:06:22 PM »
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/obama_may_need_a_reagan_comeback

Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback
A Commentary By Scott Rasmussen

Friday, October 05, 2012

The first presidential debate of 2012 is now behind us. The reviews suggest that many were surprised at how well Mitt Romney did and how weakly President Obama performed.

The Instant Polls conducted by CBS and CNN showed Romney as the big winner. In fact, CNN found that Romney emerged with the largest advantage from any debate since they began the instant debate poll three decades ago.

This leads to two questions. The first is: How much of a difference will it make?

As I noted last week, debates rarely have a major impact on a campaign, but a small shift could be decisive in a race as close as this one. Roughly 5 percent of all voters are still uncommitted to either candidate. Another 10 percent indicate they could change their minds. That's more than enough to change the race from a slight Obama advantage to a slight Romney edge.

That's especially true when the first debate focused on the key issue of Election 2012 -- the U.S. economy. Coming into the debate, 43 percent of voters gave the president good or excellent marks for handling the economy, while 46 percent said he had done a poor job. Those aren't great numbers, but the trend has been very good to Obama. The 43 percent who say he's doing a good job is up 2 points from a week ago, 8 points from a month ago and 13 points from a year ago.

Romney's comments in the debate were designed to have people rethink that assessment and reverse the trend. He said that the status quo "is not going to cut it" and talked of the need to find a "new path." He added that "under the president's policies, middle-income Americans have been buried. They're just being crushed. Middle-income Americans have seen their income come down by $4,300. This is a tax in and of itself. I'll call it the economy tax. It's been crushing."

Obama seemed less interested in defending his track record, telling the national audience, "The question here tonight is not where we've been but where we're going."

It will take a week or so to really see what impact all of this has on the polls.

But it also leads to a second question. How will the president perform in the second debate? Incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second. Ronald Reagan may be the greatest example of this.

After a very poor performance in the first debate of 1984, many wondered whether Reagan's age had caught up with him. Walter Mondale and his team thought they had a chance. But the veteran performer turned it all around at the beginning of the second debate by pledging not to make his "opponent's youth and inexperience an issue" in the campaign. Even Mondale laughed, although he had to know his chances of winning the election disappeared at that moment.

Does Obama have a comeback like that in him? We'll find out on Oct. 16.

Until then, all we can say for sure is that Romney had a good first debate and the next four weeks should be a lot more interesting on the campaign trail.

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Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 06:10:15 PM »
No, I don't believe he has it in him.  In a strange psychological way, I believe Obama displayed his real feelings during the last debate.  Truth is, I don't think gives a $hit at times.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 06:10:45 PM »
Carl Cameron reported Romney has been practicing for the next debate with Rob Portman today in Florida.

Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 06:15:19 PM »
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2012, 06:19:48 PM »
Any word onPaul Ryan?  Meanwhile, Biden is practicing his state capitals.
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline Allegra

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2012, 06:40:48 PM »
It will be a town hall setting, right?  I believe Mitt will surprise in that setting as well.  Obama has no new material and Mitt will be well prepared.

And if Mitt keeps coming out swinging like he did the other night, he should be in good shape.
Don not wait to. There was not the shadow of the wall and another shade of eye gaze, we don not go Nvragr not find the light went shadow Nnvr.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2012, 06:41:51 PM »
Yes, Townhall... media seems to think it benefits Obama, I am not certain Obama can put a coherent sentence together without a teleprompter.

Offline speekinout

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2012, 07:02:35 PM »
0bama will still have the big problem he did in the first debate. When asked a question, he doesn't give a direct answer. He invents an extreme position for his opponent, and then talks about how he's different from that extreme. That only works when there's no one to challenge his definition of his opponent's position. Romney is going to be at the second debate too, and he will no doubt explain how his position has been misstated. He's shown that he can handle that scenario quite well.

I think I am really going to enjoy the next debate.   :laugh:

Offline Rivergirl

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Re: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback By Scott Rasmussen
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2012, 07:11:21 PM »
Imagine the threats Ras is getting from the O cabal.   They are suing Gallup and you can be sure they're going to lean on Ras.

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