NBC/WSJ: Obama over Romney in New Hampshire, close in North Carolina and Nevada
By MAGGIE HABERMAN |
9/27/12 6:51 PM EDT
Another batch of swing state polls from the folks at NBC/WSJ/Marist College, this time of New Hampshire, where President Obama has a lead over Mitt Romney, and Nevada and North Carolina, where things are closer:
Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.
In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.)
The polling follows similar trends in terms of the cross-tabs as are taking place elsewhere - Obama leads among women, there are fewer young voters expected to rally to his side but he is making up for it with other supporters, and Romney's edge on the economy has faded. Romney's negative ratings in all three states remains high.
Most notable, as it has been in other recent surveys, was this stat:
In all three states, voters’ views of the direction of the country had improved, nowhere more than New Hampshire. The gap between wrong track and right direction back in June was 20 points. Now, it’s just 7 points.
There is little to explain why people suddenly feel better about the direction of the country and have a sense the economy is improving, given that few indicators have changed materially. I asked GOP ad man Alex Castellanos about this phenomenon earlier today, and got this response:
"That's easy. Clinton. His laying on of hands at the convention may turn out to be the big turning point in this campaign. The Clinton speech [in Charlotte] told America to 'trust me, give the new kid a chance, things were really going to get better soon.' Then the Obama guys ran two Clinton spots in swing states, to extend Clinton's optimistic aura. Plus Clinton's re-injection into the campaign just flat reminds people of better days. 'Happy days are here again. Go baby.' In the advertising world, they call this kind of thing, 'permission to believe.' Is it ruthlessly and breathtakingly dishonest? You bet. The 'era of big government is over' guy is embracing the guy who ended 'the era of big government being over.' But it seems to work."