September 27, 2012
Rove Shatters Obama Polling Myth
On ‘The Factor’, Bill O’Reilly spoke with Karl Rove and analyzed the recent polling numbers in swing states. Rove pointed out the importance of the ‘partisan matrix’ in polling and highlighted the CBS/NYT Polls taken in Florida and Ohio. Exit polls from previous elections provide the greatest understanding into what party will potentially have the larger voter turnout. Rove highlighted the flaws in the CBS/NYT Polls in Florida. The Poll is projecting that three times the amount of democratic voters as in 2008 are expected to turnout for the presidential elections.
O’Reilly responded by asking if this data was creating dishonest polls.
Rove: We endow them [polls] with a false scientific precision that they simply don’t have. If you have 9 points more democrats than republicans, then you are going to have 9 points more for Obama. Think about this, Romney and Obama get, each roughly, the same percentage of the republicans and democrats as their opponent, that is to say they carry their base overwhelmingly. Romney among independents is winning by 3 points. So if Romney Is winning the independents and winning the Republicans, do you think in a battleground state like Florida he is 9 points down? And the answer is no.
The CBS/NYT poll in Ohio showed a similar pattern of inflated voter turnout for democrats despite both Obama and Romney carrying their respective base. Romney, again in this example, is leading with independents and therefore the voting gap could not be as extreme as projected in the poll.
Rove said you have to be careful of polls of this nature because they frequently report with false scientific data.
O’Reilly concluded that when the media uses these polls, it ultimately affects the mindset of the voters. Rove concluded that despite the polls, the race in Florida and Ohio are still very close and will be a tossup.