WHITE HOUSE INSIDER – “The Real Deal Internal Poll Results ” (UPDATE)
by Ulsterman on September 25, 2012 with 19 Comments in News
While not answering questions related to yesterday’s WSI update, a longtime D.C. political operative gives us a breakdown of where the race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama REALLY stands in a number of critical battleground states, and ends with a plea for EVERYONE to get involved in helping make Obama a “One and Done” president…
WHI: Ok, not the question you asked me about, but something much more important. You wanted to know where the race is regarding the internal polling data. Here it is, all within the last week or so. Forget the media reports, this is where the race really stands. The governor has work to do, but it’s a lot closer than what people are being told:
New Hampshire: +2 Romney
Virginia: EVEN (This is not being reflected in media polling. Internals say otherwise. A very close race. I give slight edge to the governor.)
North Carolina: +4 Romney (Romney will win NC and Obama campaign knows it. Their latest internal reportedly showed +5 advantage for the governor)
Florida: +1 Romney (Close, but Jewish vote over last two internals now show trending against Obama. Could prove difference.)
Ohio: +1 Obama (My gut says this is EVEN, but latest internal showing slight advantage to Obama. See what #s do after ad blitz and first debate performance.)
Wisconsin: +3 Obama (Obama PACs dumping more $$$ into Wisconsin than they thought they would have to. Romney has never led, but governor’s team believes a 5% undecided segment could break overwhelmingly in his favor making this state far more competitive on Election Night than national polling now showing. I agree 100%. Wisconsin absolutely in play for us.)
Iowa: Romney +2 (Media polling results way off. Obama campaign internals telling them far different. Romney internals confirm what Obama knows. Governor holding to slim margin but again, looking to see undecideds break for Romney on Election Day)
Colorado: EVEN (This one too close to call. Internal #s hardly budged over the last six weeks. First debate will likely give momentum to one candidate or the other but right now, I give any EVEN state to Romney. Undecideds break against incumbent by 2 to 1.)
Nevada: Obama +2 (Again, Obama lead not nearly as strong as national media indicating and there is to be a significant advertising push here in the next couple of weeks by Romney campaign. I know personally of the SEIU influence here though. Difficult to overcome.)
Oregon: Obama +3 (Nobody talking about Oregon. It is on the table competitive. Large undecided segment showing up similar to Wisconsin. Could be a late left coast grab for the governor on Election Night. Hoping we won’t need it, but it is in play so worth mentioning.)
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama +4 (Saved this for last. I am convinced Romney can pull this one out and here’s why. Getting very interesting #s in counties like Allegheny, Chester, Berks, Luzerne, and most importantly, Philadelphia. Governor won’t take Philly, not even close. What the internals are showing though is support near the 30% mark and that would be almost double what McCain did in 2008 and that, combined with those other leaner counties, puts a hell of a lot of votes into the Romney column. Would be a huge upset, but it is competitive and it’s forcing Obama to spend money in a state he should not have to and in a right race, that can be a real tactical advantage. A win here will take a lot of work and a lot of money in the last few weeks but if successful, totally worth the effort.)
I will put Virginia in the got to win side for the governor. If we get Virginia, and steal Pennsylvania, Election Night is over and Obama is one and done. If we take Virginia, lose Pennsylvania, but also win Florida, then we just need Wisconsin and I think we pull out the win.
First debate coming up HUGE. Cannot emphasize enough on that. Have to go all the way back to 1980 to find similar scenario.
If the governor doesn’t show up, we are all f-cked.
No pressure, right?
As for everybody else who gives a sh-t, the country needs all of them. Every last one of them to push, pull, and drag Mitt Romney into the White House and Obama out of the White House. Right now is when the nitty meets the gritty in a campaign and if the governor is going to win, he needs a whole lot of help from a whole lot of people all across the country to get it done. The internals are showing the race is very competetive. If we are going to turn competetive into victory we need all of you out there to help out in whatever way you can. For the love of God if you aren’t doing something to help make Obama one and done now is the time you have to start. If you love America this is the real deal.
Right here. Right now.