Obama suddenly slips, Romney gains in updated Rove Electoral Map
By ANDREW MALCOLMPosted 09:12 AM ET
Karl Rove's commentary on this week's Electoral Map updates:
"Seven states changed status since last week's Electoral College map, with four moving in Mitt Romney's direction and only three moving toward Barack Obama.
"Mr. Romney saw Georgia move from 'lean' to 'safe' Romney, New Hampshire change from 'lean' Obama to 'toss up,' and New Mexico and Pennsylvania both shift from 'safe' to 'lean' Obama.
"Mr. Obama saw Oregon shift from 'lean' to 'safe' Obama, Wisconsin change from 'toss up' to 'lean' Obama, and Arizona move from 'safe' Romney to 'lean' Romney.
"Mr. Obama is down to 196 'safe Electoral College votes with four states (51 EC votes) 'leaning' in his favor.
"Mr. Romney's 'safe' EC votes increased to 159, with three 'lean' states (32 EC votes) that are more than likely to be in his column on Election Day.
"It should be noted this is the first time since August 1st that Mr. Obama's 'safe' EC vote total decreased while Mr. Romney's grew.
"There are also eight 'toss up' states and a coveted 100 EC votes are up for grabs. These states remain too close to call and show little movement, even after a week of rigorous polling (52 surveys conducted in 18 states)."
Last week's Rove Electoral Map. For previous versions, click on "Electoral Map" in the Subject Categories to the right here.
Background: We launched a special new feature in this column last month. Now through election day we'll publish the famous electoral map of the presidential race designed and researched by veteran political strategist Karl Rove.
It is a custom-made 50 state-by-state breakdown of the race at this moment in time, based upon the latest polls from each state. (Scroll down for Rove's full methodology.)
This new feature comes thanks to special permission from Rove, whose website is Rove.com and Twitter handle is @KarlRove. We recommend following him and regularly checking his website, which contains a variety of information on the presidential contest, polls and other links, including his Wall Street Journal columns.
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Methodology: For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the map's release date (all polls earlier than that will drop off). For example, the map published on September 17 does not include any poll earlier than August 17, except if the latest poll in a state was conducted before August 17 (for example, the most recent poll in Indiana was taken on August 1).
States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states between a five-to-eight-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as "lean" for that candidate; states outside the eight-point lead are allocated to the respective party.
Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results.