Author Topic: Obama pollster mocks Romney campaign 'fantasy'  (Read 559 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Obama pollster mocks Romney campaign 'fantasy'
« on: September 25, 2012, 06:24:20 PM »

Obama pollster mocks Romney campaign 'fantasy'
9/25/12 5:10 PM EDT

In a blunt interview with Greg Sargent, President Obama's pollster Joel Benenson mocked the Mitt Romney campaign's contention that the race is within the margin of error in part because the modeling, as the Republican's team says, is skewed toward a 2008 model that won't be duplicated this time:


    “The notion that this electorate isn’t going to be as diverse as it was is frankly a fantasy,” Benenson said.

    “The percentage of African Americans has gone up in every presidential election since 1992, except in 2000, where the number went down one percent,” Benenson continued. “Latinos have gone up in every election since 1992. And 18-to-29-year-old voters have been at 17 percent or more in every election since 1992, except 2000."

    “There are some historical trends that appear to be pretty irreversible,” Benenson said. “That reality may be uncomfortable for the Romney campaign, but this will be an electorate that has been as diverse as the previous four presidential elections.”

There has been a lot - and probably not enough - said about the proliferation of polls this cycle, and their reliability. Republicans doing private polls have generally said - privately - that Romney is behind in battleground states, but not as far back as some of the public polling.

Romney's campaign argues the Democratic samples are too heavy in the public surveys, and has pointed to national tracks like Gallup and Rasmussen to affirm its point that the race is being judged on an inaccurate metric.

Only one of them will be right - if Romney pollster Neil Newhouse is correct, then the race is much closer than has generally been reported. If Benenson is right, the electorate is predictable and 2008 was a newer normal, not an aberration.

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Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Obama pollster mocks Romney campaign 'fantasy'
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2012, 07:13:46 PM »
Notice this in the story. The Obama campaign, and it's media pollsters,  are assuming 2008 is "the new normal" and the current polling is based on that.

Anyone really think Obama is going to do as well in 2012 turning out voters as he did in 2008? Anyone see any data to support that assumption?

Offline speekinout

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Re: Obama pollster mocks Romney campaign 'fantasy'
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 08:03:42 PM »
The 0bama camp is the one living in fantasy land. I doubt there is a McCain voter who will vote for 0bama this time. And I also think that conservatives who stayed home in 2008 rather than vote for McCain won't do that again. But some of the 0bama voters won't show up at the polls again.
2008 was the maximum for 0bama and the minimum for Romney. It is in no way the "new normal".

Online Frank Cannon

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Re: Obama pollster mocks Romney campaign 'fantasy'
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2012, 02:11:18 AM »
Only in Polutico would a Regime hack spreading more BS be treated like news. Zero and his crew also tell us a movie caused an ambassador to be killed, that health insurance premiums are lower and that the economy is in fine shape. What make this any different?
How can Trump save the country when he can't even bring the party together?

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