Author Topic: Two polls show small Obama edge in Florida  (Read 482 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Two polls show small Obama edge in Florida
« on: September 24, 2012, 08:51:48 AM »

Two polls show small Obama edge in Florida
9/24/12 7:21 AM EDT

Last week, a Purple Strategies survey showed Mitt Romney with a 1-point lead in Florida. Over the weekend, two polls came out confirming that the race there is awfully close, but giving Obama small advantages.

First there's this PPP poll, which came out overnight:


    PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 50-46 margin in the state. That represents a 3 point improvement for Obama since PPP's last poll of the state, which was conducted the weekend after the Republican convention. It represents the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in Florida since early June.

    Mitt Romney's image with Floridians has taken a turn in the wrong direction since his party gathered in Tampa for its convention. His favorability has dropped a net 9 points from +2 at 49/47 over Labor Day weekend to now -7 at 44/51. Romney's comments about the '47%' this week aren't doing him any favors. 89% of voters are familiar with them and 50% consider them to have been inappropriate to 44% who were ok with them. Most troubling for Romney independent voters considered the comments improper by a 58/37 margin and he trails Obama by a 51/40 spread with those folks who could determine the final outcome in the state.

Then there's this Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll, giving Obama only the smallest of leads, well within the margin of error:


    A new Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds 48 percent of likely Florida voters backing Obama, 47 percent supporting Romney, 1 percent with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and just 4 percent undecided.

    "It's still very much a toss-up. It's a turnout game," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

    The needle has barely budged since the last Times/Herald/Bay News 9 poll in July showed Obama leading 46 percent to 45 percent, though Obama's lead with independents grew 6 percentage points while the number of undecided voters dropped 3 points.

All this data basically confirms that Florida is still Florida, and we're likely headed for another neck-and-neck presidential race there until the end. Due to the makeup of the electoral map, the state is somewhat more important for Romney than it is for Obama: the president can cobble together 270 electoral votes without Florida's 29, but it's very difficult to see how Romney wins without the state.

Interestingly, the Tampa Bay Times poll suggests that whatever is driving Obama's performance in the state, it's not an overwhelming advantage (or really, any substantial advantage) on Medicare:

Asked whether they trust Obama or Romney more to keep Medicare financially stable, 49 percent of voters said Obama and 47 percent Romney. Voters 50 and older said they trusted Obama more, but not significantly.

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Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Two polls show small Obama edge in Florida
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2012, 12:54:12 PM »
PPP poll oversampled Dem +9 in a state Obama won in 2008 by 2.8.  It is a garbage in-garbage out poll.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Two polls show small Obama edge in Florida
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2012, 03:19:43 PM »
PPP poll oversampled Dem +9 in a state Obama won in 2008 by 2.8.  It is a garbage in-garbage out poll.

Something I heard after that election is after the election was over there was a lot of ballots found for McCain that were never counted... frankly, I think Obama won Florida because Charlie Crist in his own way helped him with things like letting the felons in prison vote, etc... and ACORN was very active in Florida and Crist allowed it!  when Republicans wanted to challenge people ACORN had registered Crist stopped it.
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