I think Virginia may well be Romney's toughest hurdle, for several reasons:
1. The government workers within an hour of DC are fat and happy, and so are the small businesses that cater to them. This fact was driven home to me when I went to Fairfax to pick up a car from a car dealer a few weeks ago. It was a BMW dealership. The salesperson told me that in his estimation about 70 percent of his customers and colleagues would be voting for Obama. And this guy is no liberal.
2. A lot of the registered Republicans in VA are government workers.
3. The Dem turnout will be higher there than in other places by virtue of the high number of government workers.
It basically comes down to beltway turnout versus the rest of the state, but most of the the growth in the state has been government growth, so it's problematic. I think it will actually be a tougher nut for Romney to crack than Ohio. Not impossible -- it's still a southern state with southern roots -- but way tougher than North Carolina and I think tougher than Ohio.