Author Topic: Obama up 5 in Virginia  (Read 1150 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline mystery-ak

  • Owner
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 257,485
Obama up 5 in Virginia
« on: September 17, 2012, 08:28:11 AM »
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-5-in-virginia.html

September 16, 2012
Obama up 5 in Virginia

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading by 5 points, 51-46. Obama's lead is unchanged from a month ago when we found him leading 50-45 in the state. He may not be seeing a bump from the convention in the state at this point, but he was in a pretty good position to begin with.

Virginia continues to look like it may be something of a firewall state for Obama. PPP has now polled it 9 times this cycle, and President Obama has led by at least 4 points on all 9 of the polls. He's been ahead by 5 points, 5 points, 8 points, and 8 points over the course of the four surveys we've conducted in 2012.

Obama has a slight advantage over Romney (49-47) in terms of who voters trust more on the economy and a wider (51-45) edge over Romney on foreign policy. Only 41% of voters say they approve of how Romney reacted to the situation in Libya this week while 48% express disapproval.

Obama's leading 56-42 with women, 91-7 with African Americans, 63-30 with other non-white voters, and 56-37 with young voters. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with men, a 57-40 one with whites, and a 54-43 lead with seniors. Romney is slightly ahead with independents, 47-45, but Obama's party is more unified with Democrats supporting him 95-4 while Republicans go for Romney by a slightly weaker 92-7 margin.
One thing playing to Democrats' advantage in Virginia is that their voters are actually more excited than Republicans about the election now, contrary to the conventional wisdom for most of this cycle. 73% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall compared to 63% of GOP voters. Women (64%) are more enthusiastic about voting than men (60%), African Americans (85%) are more excited than white voters (57%), and  young voters (72%) are more excited than seniors (62%). Republicans can't count on winning back Virginia just by the Obama base staying home because it's still pretty enthusiastic.

There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of Virgil Goode tipping the election to Obama in Virginia but our new poll finds that his support has mostly faded. When third party candidates are included on this poll Obama leads Romney 49-45 with Gary Johnson at 2% and Goode and Jill Stein both at just 1%. Goode's net favorability with Republican voters has dropped a net 15 points in the last month from +3 (19/16) to -12 (14/26), suggesting that many of the party faithful are not happy about the possibility of him having a spoiler effect.

Two other notes:

-Virginians narrowly approve of Obama (50/48) and narrowly have an unfavorable opinion of Romney (47/49).

-By a 50/43 margin voters in the state think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns.

Support the USO

Offline GAJohnnie

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1,869
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2012, 12:16:24 PM »
Actually Party registration in VA is 39R-36D. So this poll has a +6 Democrat over sample.

Offline Oceander

  • Technical
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 47,422
  • Chief Dork
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2012, 01:16:55 PM »
Is there any poll that's come out yet that isn't overweighted in favor of Democrats?

Offline aligncare

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 19,714
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2012, 01:21:58 PM »

PPP is pee eww.  Please disregard as they have an agenda.
NeverTrump wants to deny you YOUR voice, YOUR presidential choice.

Offline Rapunzel

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 71,719
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2012, 02:46:15 PM »

Offline Saltbag

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 278
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2012, 03:31:49 PM »
As a Virginian, this is getting a lot of play on our local talk radio.  They're echoing the "what a load of crap, they over-sampled Democrats, and this is not Virginia."  Efforts to demoralize the conservative base that are completely transparent.  People calling in to talk have had the theme of "Do they really think we're that stupid?"

They also joke about forcing the counties around D.C. to secede and let Maryland have them.  I'm perfectly fine with that. 
"Any act of government must necessarily reduce? freedom" - Thomas Sowell

Offline Oceander

  • Technical
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 47,422
  • Chief Dork
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2012, 03:34:59 PM »
As a Virginian, this is getting a lot of play on our local talk radio.  They're echoing the "what a load of crap, they over-sampled Democrats, and this is not Virginia."  Efforts to demoralize the conservative base that are completely transparent.  People calling in to talk have had the theme of "Do they really think we're that stupid?"

They also joke about forcing the counties around D.C. to secede and let Maryland have them.  I'm perfectly fine with that. 

I tend to agree about lopping off NOVA from the rest of Virginia.  I went to high school in Fairfax County, and it ain't what it used to be.

Offline evadRē

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 3,197
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2012, 09:22:14 PM »
As a Virginian, this is getting a lot of play on our local talk radio.  They're echoing the "what a load of crap, they over-sampled Democrats, and this is not Virginia."  Efforts to demoralize the conservative base that are completely transparent.  People calling in to talk have had the theme of "Do they really think we're that stupid?"

They also joke about forcing the counties around D.C. to secede and let Maryland have them.  I'm perfectly fine with that.
Yo Salty...we'll take any three counties you've got if you'll take PG, Montgomery and Balto City.

Deal???
November 6, 2012, a day in infamy...the death of a republic as we know it.

Offline Saltbag

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 278
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2012, 01:25:24 PM »
"Any act of government must necessarily reduce? freedom" - Thomas Sowell

Offline evadRē

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 3,197
Re: Obama up 5 in Virginia
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2012, 01:45:22 PM »
Yo Salty...we'll take any three counties you've got if you'll take PG, Montgomery and Balto City.

Deal???
 
Only if you throw in O'Malley.  The total freefall quad-fecta.

Lemme get this straight, you WANT Owe-Malley.
YES YES, we'll throw him in with the deal.
How about Michael Busch, make it a quinfecta :laugh:
November 6, 2012, a day in infamy...the death of a republic as we know it.


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf