Author Topic: Polls and discussions  (Read 2222 times)

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Offline R4 TrumPence

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Polls and discussions
« on: September 16, 2012, 08:20:09 PM »


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Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2012, 08:21:47 PM »
2008 result polls by state/ polling company

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/pres_polls.html


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Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2012, 08:23:18 PM »
Four years.
314 million citizens.
240 million voters.
50 states and one federal district.
538 Electoral College votes.
This... is the 2012 United States Presidential Election.

The stage is now set for the 57th quadrennial United States Presidential Election, to be held on November 6 this year.

The election, which would also see the appointment of a Vice President, officially kicked off in January 2012 with nationwide state level primaries and caucuses, and after a grueling six months, the campaign season now enters into the final stretch. The event will feature the incumbent, President Barack Obama for the Democrats, against an array of opponents which include, Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican Party, Gov. Gary Johnson for the Libertarian Party, and a host of other third party, independent and mail-in candidates.
http://2012.presidential-candidates.org/


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Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2012, 08:25:05 PM »
Democrat underground polling preferences 2004 :silly: :silly:


My list of good and bad polling companies

 
The Good ones:

Zogby - Nailed the last election dead on. Uses realistic weight of Dems and Republicans.
Rasmussen - Very consistent, Solid Method
ARG - Solid Method
Pew - Solid Method and large sample
Harris - I only know they tend to agree with these other four polls.
Opinion Dynamics - Their numbers seem reasonable

The Bad ones:
Gallup - Weighted to heavy toward Republicans
Survey USA - They suck!
Mason Dixon - They are consistantly ten to twelve points off Zogby
Strategic Vision - This is a Republican Polling Company. Need I say more?


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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2012, 11:18:18 PM »
Kenneth Bickers - University of Colorado is saying this will be around 330 for Romney.........

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2012, 11:21:52 PM »
The Las Vegas guy likened the upcoming election to the surprisingly massive turnout supporting Chick Fil A.  I'll take it!

Online Oceander

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2012, 11:30:15 PM »
Quote
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

That's nice, but it's only meaningful to the extent that this election is like the 2008 election.  I don't think anyone other than a democrat truly drunk on kool-aid would think they're even remotely alike.  This election is substantially more like 1980 than it is like 2008; the methodologies that proved most adept at getting the 1980 election correct are most likely the methodologies that would get this election correct.

Offline Allegra

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2012, 11:51:54 PM »
That's nice, but it's only meaningful to the extent that this election is like the 2008 election.  I don't think anyone other than a democrat truly drunk on kool-aid would think they're even remotely alike.  This election is substantially more like 1980 than it is like 2008; the methodologies that proved most adept at getting the 1980 election correct are most likely the methodologies that would get this election correct.

OK, I know I can look it up, but I'm being lazy.  Was the 1980 race polled tight?  Didn't Carter have the lead in the polls until nearly Election Day?

(If nobody has that information, I'll go ahead and look it up.   ^-^)
Don not wait to. There was not the shadow of the wall and another shade of eye gaze, we don not go Nvragr not find the light went shadow Nnvr.

Online Oceander

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2012, 11:54:20 PM »

Offline Allegra

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2012, 11:56:26 PM »
Carter started off leading and it went tight and stayed tight for a long time.  We all know how it eventually wound up.

Most definitely NOT tight.   :silly:

(Thanks.)
Don not wait to. There was not the shadow of the wall and another shade of eye gaze, we don not go Nvragr not find the light went shadow Nnvr.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2012, 12:00:09 AM »
The debate turned the 1980 election.  One could say the first debate may have made the difference in THIS election.  Reagan loved this country and he helped turn us around after the dismal Nixon followed by Carter years (yes I remember 21% interest rates and frozen wages)......  I hope this will be a repeat of Reagan-like leadership.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2012, 12:00:44 AM by R˛apunzel »

Online Oceander

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2012, 12:02:36 AM »
I don't know if Romney's first debate with Obuttocks was as much of a game-changer as Reagan's debate with Carter - only history will be able to make that judgment call - but the first debate was certainly a game-changer of some magnitude.

Offline Allegra

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2012, 12:05:22 AM »
Don not wait to. There was not the shadow of the wall and another shade of eye gaze, we don not go Nvragr not find the light went shadow Nnvr.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2012, 12:07:25 AM »

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2012, 12:08:57 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8YxFc_1b_0" target="_blank" class="aeva_link bbc_link new_win">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8YxFc_1b_0</a>

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2012, 12:15:32 AM »
One thing - if you watch the tape above - Romney could learn something from watching this himself, notice the "actor" Reagan did speak more slowly and stopped to let some of what he said sink in before he plunged forward with more........  he didn't rush what he was saying to get a lot in during his time alloted... Romney tends to rush what he is saying a bit and you have to "listen fast" to keep up at times...  his timing last night in his dinner speech was more measured and it worked for him....

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2012, 12:18:56 AM »
This afternoon Bob Beckle was on Cavuto and started spewing "Romney doesn't have any experience in foreign policy and has no business challenging Obama" - stuff..... Cavuto then challenged Beckle and asked what foreign policy experience Obama had when he was elected?  At first Beckle tried to fluff it off, Cavuto wouldn't let him and he finally admitted none... Cavuto then asked how he could criticize Romney then...... he had no reply.

Online Oceander

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2012, 12:23:23 AM »

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2012, 12:31:38 AM »
I swear this debate could have been held this year.......  Carter sounds like Obama and Reagan sounds like Romney.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Polls and discussions
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2012, 12:32:57 AM »
Actually, I take that back. You could understand what Carter was saying -- maybe not like what he was saying, but he didn't talk in circles.. Obama debates like a petulant child.


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