Poll: Warren leads Brown by 6 in Mass.
By CHARLES MAHTESIAN |
9/16/12 1:10 PM EDT
A new Massachusetts poll reports Democrat Elizabeth Warren has a 50 percent to 44 percent advantage over GOP Sen. Scott Brown.
From the Western New England University Polling Institute’s analysis:
The survey, which the Polling Institute conducted Sept. 6-13 in partnership with The Republican newspaper of Springfield, MA and MassLive.com, found that Warren is relying on sizable support from Democrats and women to overcome Brown’s lead among independent voters and men.
Of the 444 likely voters interviewed for the survey, 50 percent said they would support Warren if the election was held today, 44 percent said Brown, and six percent said they were undecided. Among the larger sample of 545 registered voters, Warren led Brown by 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent, with six percent undecided. The margin of sampling error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, and the margin of error for the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
The latest survey differs significantly from the Polling Institute’s previous survey in the Senate race, conducted May 29-31. Warren led Brown by two points among all registered voters in the May survey.
Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute and a professor of political science at Western New England University, said Warren might be riding a wave of enthusiasm among Democrats after the party’s presidential nominating convention. Data collection for the survey began on the final night of the convention on Sept. 6, one night after Warren addressed convention delegates in a nationally televised speech.
The poll is only the second this year – the other was in February – to show either candidate at 50 percent.
In contrast to several other top tier Senate races, most notably the Missouri Senate contest between Todd Akin and Sen. Claire McCaskill, both candidates are unusually popular. Brown’s job approval rating is at 57 percent, compared to just 30 percent who disapprove – numbers that would make many of his Senate colleagues envious. Warren’s favorability ratings are 53-33.
Those ratings may change, though, as the campaigns take a sharper approach in the homestretch. Responding to intra-party criticism, Warren receently retooled her ads with an eye toward cutting down Brown’s big 57-35 lead among independents.