Author Topic: No Bounce? Romney Leads by 2 in Battleground States, 9 Point Swing Since 08  (Read 868 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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 by Mike Flynn 4 Sep 2012, 9:49 AM PDT 

For the past several days, the media have consoled themselves that Romney didn't receive any kind of bounce from the RNC convention last week in Tampa. Torture polls with enough Democrat bias in their samples and you can convince yourself of anything. Really, their willful ignorance of reality is their most precious trait. So, if there was no bounce, why are all the battleground states moving towards Romney. Obama won the 11 battleground states by 7 points in 2008. Today, Romney leads by 2. 

This morning, Rasmussen released its Daily Tracking poll of the 11 battleground states. Collectively, they hold 146 electoral votes. Keep in mind, Obama won all of the eleven battleground states in 2008. That we are even talking about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin as swing states gives you some idea of the challenges facing Barack Obama. Romney leads in 4 swing states and is tied in 3. Obama leads in 4, but these also were states where he put up big numbers in 08. Below is where things stand in the battlegrounds, as well as Obama's victory margin in 2008.

    CO   Tied   08: Obama +9
    FL   Romney +2   08: Obama +3
    IA   Romney +2   08: Obama +9
    MI    Obama +6   08: Obama +16
    NV   Obama +5   08: Obama +12
    NH   Obama +5   08: Obama +9
    NC   Romney +5   08: Obama +1
    OH   Tied   08: Obama +5
    PA   Obama +4   08: Obama +11
    VA   Tied   08: Obama +6
    WI   Romney +1   08: Obama +13

Obama is underperforming in the battleground states by 4-14 points compared to 08. This is after Obama enjoyed a 3-1 spending advantage over Romney throughout the summer. He used that advantage to hurl every possible negative attack on the GOP nominee. At the end, Obama leads Pennsylvania (!) by 4 points.

So, sure, let's all pretend Romney didn't get any kind of bounce out of the convention. Let's pretend that Romney has a very narrow path to 270 electoral votes and Obama has all these mythical ways to get there. The trend is your friend, though. And the trend is looking very good for Romney.

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