Author Topic: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll  (Read 3822 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« on: August 26, 2012, 10:34:29 AM »

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Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2012, 11:45:21 AM »
Would love to know the Dem-GOP-Ind mix Rass uses.

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2012, 11:47:06 AM »
Monday, August 27, 2012

In 11 swing states, President Obama now attracts 48% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. Rasmussen Reader subscribers can read the full daily updates. Platinum Members will have access to detailed demographic information.

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2012, 11:48:01 AM »
This and the Daily Tracking poll...not good at all...

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2012, 01:03:47 PM »
Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Swing State Tracking Confirms Sense of a Race Too Close to Call


Ras is now charging to see this section...grrrrr

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Offline GAJohnnie

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2012, 01:11:00 PM »
This is a really stupid polling methodology by Rass. Including PA in there is going to seriously screw the results towards 0. I guess the need to keep the horse race mentality going trumps intellectual honesty in Rass's world view.

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2012, 02:25:17 PM »
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-lead-declining-in-iowa.html

August 28, 2012
Obama lead declining in Iowa

PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining all the way to two points. He's at 47% to 45% for Mitt Romney. In July we found Obama ahead 48-43 and in May it was 51-41.

Iowa makes yet another swing state where voters don't really care for either Obama or Romney. Obama's approval numbers are particularly poor with only 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. The fact that he has a small lead in the state despite his under water approval speaks to at least some voters regarding this election as a choice rather than a referendum. Voters aren't big on Romney either with 47% rating him favorably to 48% with an unfavorable opinion.

If wind energy ends up being a defining issue for Iowa voters that will be good news for Obama's prospects in the state. 54% of voters support the tax credit for wind energy production companies to only 26% who oppose it. Among independents support is 58/25. 68% of voters say they consider wind energy to be an important issue, including 29% of voters who say that it's 'very important.' When asked which Presidential candidate they trust more on wind energy Obama beats Romney 47-37. In a state that looks like a sheer toss up this could end up being a defining issue.

A lot of attention has been paid to Republicans regaining the party registration advantage in Iowa this year. The reason Obama continues to lead the state anyway is a large lead among unaffiliated voters. On this particular poll he has a 49-36 edge with them and that finding has been consistent in our polling- he was up 46-38 with them on our July poll and 54-34 in May.
It's hard to quantify but the Paul Ryan pick could be helping Romney at least a little bit in Iowa. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. Those aren't earth shattering numbers, but they're at least better than Obama and Romney's. Iowa makes another swing state where voters express a positive view of Ryan while also being opposed to the Ryan Plan by a 46/37 margin. People like the man, but not necessarily his policies.

The gender gap shows up in a major way in Iowa. Romney leads 51-40 with men, but that's not enough to offset Obama's 53/40 advantage with women. There's also a pretty big generational gap with Obama leading 50-40 among voters under 45, but Romney ahead 48-45 with voters over 45.

There's not much doubt at this point- Iowa's a swing state and the landscape there looks a whole lot more like 2000 or 2004 than it does 2012. Obama's unpopularity gives the GOP a great chance at reclaiming the state.

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Offline Gazoo

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2012, 05:40:21 PM »
Didn't Dick Morris say don't pay attention to the polls? I am hearing a lot of democrats are staying home. So unless a ton of illegals and dead people vote Obama is toast.
"The Tea Party has a right to feel cheated.

When does the Republican Party, put in the majority by the Tea Party, plan to honor its commitment to halt the growth of the Federal monolith and bring the budget back into balance"?

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2012, 10:11:16 AM »
Friday, August 31, 2012

Rasmussen Reader subscribers can read full Swing State tracking updates daily at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. These results are from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Platinum Members will have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, the president now attracts 46% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2012, 03:12:00 PM »
Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Swing State Daily Tracking: 40% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Rasmussen Reader subscribers can read the full Swing State tracking update daily at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. This article offers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, the president now attracts 47% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 45%. Three percent (3%) plan to vote for some other candidate, while 5% are not sure.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

In the swing states, Obama leads by a wide margin with voters under 40. Romney has a 15-point advantage among those over 65 and holds a small lead among those aged 40-64.

graphs at links

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Offline oliviasdad

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2012, 02:23:13 AM »
Rule of thumb.   80% of Undecideds go for the Challenger on Election Day.

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2012, 10:19:19 AM »

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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2012, 11:58:08 AM »
9/18/12: 

New Hampshire:  Romney:  48   The other one:  45

Colorado:  Romney:  47   The other one:  45

Mitt's state-by-state strategy may be kicking in!
« Last Edit: September 19, 2012, 11:59:52 AM by Right_in_Virginia »
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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2012, 03:06:28 PM »
I hope Romney is campaigning in Dixville Notch NH!

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2012, 11:59:57 AM »
Quote
Scott Rasmussen ?@RasmussenPoll

Swing State Daily Tracking: #Obama 47%, #Romney 46%...





.............no change

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2012, 10:13:10 AM »

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2012, 01:27:48 PM »
« Last Edit: September 24, 2012, 01:28:23 PM by mysteR≤y-ak »

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Offline olde north church

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2012, 02:00:05 PM »
Why?  Well, because I'm a bastard, that's why.

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2012, 07:29:22 PM »
Some of these polls are showing Obama with ridiculous leads of 10, 15, and even close to 18%.

There is no way he will do sometimes 5 times better than as he did in 2008.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2012, 12:29:30 PM »

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2012, 12:44:38 PM »
Bad news all around...I feel like crawling back in bed and pulling the covers over my head sometimes....Ras is the most accurate pollster there is....grrrr

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Offline Scottftlc

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2012, 12:53:28 PM »
Yeah, it isn't good to comment.  Sometimes it's better to just hold your tongue and think about other things.

We all have to find a way to live after the first Tuesday in November, whether there is good news or bad.  People had to survive in the USSR for decades, even though they hated their government and system.  They Just laid low, stayed out of the way and kept their mouth shut.  Hopefully, it never gets that bad here.
Well, George Lewis told the Englishman, the Italian and the Jew
You can't open your mind, boys, to every conceivable point of view

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Offline Oceander

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2012, 09:35:48 AM »

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2012, 09:40:30 AM »
Still feel like it's bad news all 'round?

What a difference a week makes..huh!

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2012, 10:55:17 AM »

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