Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Rasmussen Reports will be issuing a daily Swing State Tracking Poll from now through Election Day. New results will be posted each morning after 10 Eastern. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, covering the whole nation, is released each morning at 9:30 Eastern.
The swing state poll covers 11 key states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. All 11 were won by President Obama in 2008, and all are thought to be competitive to some degree. Collectively, they hold 146 Electoral College votes.
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In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin. Currently, the president attracts 46% of the Swing State Vote, while Mitt Romney attracts 45%. Four percent (4%) prefer a third party candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided.
These results are derived from tracking poll data collected for the seven days ending August 25, 2012. The sample includes approximately 1,300 Likely Voters, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently 51%. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.
Thirty percent (30%) of these swing state voters believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction. Sixty-one percent (61%) believe it has gotten off on the wrong track.
The Key Three States are Virginia, Ohio and Florida. With 60 Electoral College votes, these three states are currently Toss-Ups. It is virtually impossible for Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of these three states. If he wins all three, he is likely to win the election. Obama can keep his job if he wins two of these three states.
At the other extreme are Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. While these three may be more competitive than usual, they will be very difficult to move from the Democratic column to the GOP side.