Author Topic: The Crystal Ball on the presidential election  (Read 634 times)

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Offline pjohns

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The Crystal Ball on the presidential election
« on: August 10, 2012, 12:15:57 AM »
James E. Campbell, as a guest columnist for Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, has some rather interesting observations as concerning the upcoming presidential election:

Forget Bain Capital, tax returns, whether the President says you built your business or not, Fast and Furious, Romneycare, Obamacare, overseas gaffes and the campaign story du jour. These are side issues and distractions. This presidential election should be primarily about one thing, which is the issue that is perennially most important to American voters: the economy.

The economy should be center-stage particularly this year because it was the basis for Barack Obama winning the presidency in the first place. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the later years of the Bush presidency, the John McCain-Obama race of 2008 was quite close until the Wall Street meltdown began in mid-September. As the Gallup data in Table 1 show, Obama held a small lead over McCain until mid-August, and then the race got even tighter. After the conventions, McCain emerged with a small lead. While some of McCain's convention bump would normally recede in a week or so, the financial crisis and its economic fallout went well beyond this correction. It turned voters squarely against the Republicans as the in-party and sent Barack Obama to the White House.

Here is the link to the full article:  Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball  Can President Obama Survive His Economic Record?

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