Prediction: Romney is going to lose ...

[Oceander]

Please relax. The polls that you cite are flat out WRONG.

Why?

Because they assume a Democrat advantage of between 7 and 9 percentage points in party affiliation among likely voters.

In order to believe that, you would have to believe that the 2012 race will attract an even higher turnout among Democrat core constituencies than occurred in 2008 (when Democrats enjoyed a 7-point advantage in the "Hope and Change" era).
 
Do you really believe that to be the case this year? Who is more motivated to vote in 2012 - Republicans or Democrats? As for Independent (unaffiliated) voters - do you think they will be more or less likely this year to endorse Barack Obama after having lived through and seen the results of his first term?

In reality, Republican and Democrat turnout is far more likely to mirror 2010 than 2012.

So, please -relax. But still: get everyone you know who might be so inclined to register and vote to save America from a second Obama term.

Amen

[aligncare]

andy, I can't even begin to count how many times I've been wrong in politics; but, this time I'm certain--even I can't be wrong.  Obama will lose.  In part because Obama's been a failure on the economy, but also because Romney is the right man for this moment in history.  He's got the right skills and the right temperament to succeed.  He's an attractive candidate who's conservative enough for what needs doing over the next four or eight years.  He's got the support of 90+ percent of conservatives like Cruz, Rubio, Ryan and scores of other high profile conservatives.  Plus, he appeals to the middle as well.

I am resolved and I am not worried any longer about Romney's chances.

[Oceander]

andy, I can't even begin to count how many times I've been wrong in politics; but, this time I'm certain--even I can't be wrong.  Obama will lose.  In part because Obama's been a failure on the economy, but also because Romney is the right man for this moment in history.  He's got the right skills and the right temperament to succeed.  He's an attractive candidate who's conservative enough for what needs doing over the next four or eight years.  He's got the support of 90+ percent of conservatives like Cruz, Rubio, Ryan and scores of other high profile conservatives.  Plus, he appeals to the middle as well.

I am resolved and I am not worried any longer about Romney's chances.

Maybe so, but let's not get too sanguine, or rest to easily on our apparent laurels.  There's still the matter of an election to win.

In the meantime, however, since my vote and, I suppose, your vote, aren't going to turn the tide and put NYS into Romney's column, what would be the more productive use of our time?  I'm asking honestly.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Maybe so, but let's not get too sanguine, or rest to easily on our apparent laurels.  There's still the matter of an election to win.

In the meantime, however, since my vote and, I suppose, your vote, aren't going to turn the tide and put NYS into Romney's column, what would be the more productive use of our time?  I'm asking honestly.

I am fond of knitting.

[R4 TrumPence]

Maybe so, but let's not get too sanguine, or rest to easily on our apparent laurels.  There's still the matter of an election to win.

In the meantime, however, since my vote and, I suppose, your vote, aren't going to turn the tide and put NYS into Romney's column, what would be the more productive use of our time?  I'm asking honestly.

Go on the Mitt site and sign up to make calls in the swing states! 

[Oceander]

Go on the Mitt site and sign up to make calls in the swing states! 

I won't do that because I absolutely cannot stand it when someone calls me.  So far I've managed to be polite, but political campaign phone calls drive me up the wall, which is a bad thing because my wife is getting tired of footprints on the ceiling.  Since I hate it, I would feel very awkward doing it to other people.

[Rapunzel]

I won't do that because I absolutely cannot stand it when someone calls me.  So far I've managed to be polite, but political campaign phone calls drive me up the wall, which is a bad thing because my wife is getting tired of footprints on the ceiling.  Since I hate it, I would feel very awkward doing it to other people.

Same here.  I had a summer job in High School working for a vacuum cleaner sales company and my job was to call potential customers to try and make appointments.. I HATED it...... then I sold encyclopedia's door-to-door for a VERY short while... I was actually pretty good and made a lot of money (for the time) but then I started really looking at the people I was selling to and could not get past they needed furniture and a lot of other things more than encyclopedias and that was that.. I just could not do it!  and like OC I hate calls unsolicited calls, love caller ID because I don't answer unless I know who is on the phone.....

[Luis Gonzalez]

LB, at this moment the answer is no.  That could change if Pennsylvania becomes competitive, and depending on how Romney campaigns.  Funny thing is, I don't want or expect Romney to run a conservative campaign.  I wouldn't find him credible if he did.  I actually think he may have a better chance of getting my vote if he puts Condi Rice on the ticket and reels in enough suburban women to get within the margin of error in my state.  At that point, I'd have to make the calculation that my denying him my vote could have the effect of helping OPapaDoc.  But so long as Pennsylvania stays firm Obama territory, I feel no ethical dilemma in not voting for Romney.

I will be very active in trying to deny Obama re-election, of that you can be certain.  For example, I will make many more videos mocking OPapaDoc and liberals.  But specifically promoting and supporting Romney?  I just can't go there.  At least not yet.

Interesting.

The only action that will eventually bring about stopping Obama from being re-elected, is to vote for the individual running against him, who has the greatest chance of defeating him.

The most likely outcome of people not voting for the opposition because they feel that the opposition has already lost, is that the opposition will lose.

I can understand your unwillingness to cast a vote for Romney. I just don't understand your refusal to cast an effective vote against Obama if you really wish to actively deny Obama re-election.

At Lexington, 75 minutemen faced over 700 British troops. The minutemen were outnumbered, out gunned, and untrained, and faced certain defeat.

Thank God someone fired that first shot.

I am voting for Romney even if I am the only person in Florida doing so.

It's not about whether I like Romney or not, it is about what I think about Obama.

[R4 TrumPence]

Well said Luis!

And to Oceander:  Calling was the only thing I could think of considering where you live..sorry  

Although you might enjoy a nice debate with a stupid lib on the other end of the phone..that can be satisfying too 

[massadvj]

Interesting.

The only action that will eventually bring about stopping Obama from being re-elected, is to vote for the individual running against him, who has the greatest chance of defeating him.

The most likely outcome of people not voting for the opposition because they feel that the opposition has already lost, is that the opposition will lose.

I can understand your unwillingness to cast a vote for Romney. I just don't understand your refusal to cast an effective vote against Obama if you really wish to actively deny Obama re-election.

At Lexington, 75 minutemen faced over 700 British troops. The minutemen were outnumbered, out gunned, and untrained, and faced certain defeat.

Thank God someone fired that first shot.

I am voting for Romney even if I am the only person in Florida doing so.

It's not about whether I like Romney or not, it is about what I think about Obama.

Your point of view is reasonable and cogent.  I make no argument against it, nor do I criticize anyone for voting for Romney. 

[Luis Gonzalez]

Your point of view is reasonable and cogent.  I make no argument against it, nor do I criticize anyone for voting for Romney.

Please understand that I am not critical of your choice, it's obviously a choice, so we all have the right to make our own, but having grown up in a place where I did not have the ability to vote, I see the exercise of my vote as a sacred duty; I owe it to the country and the people who welcomed me.

I am far from thrilled by Romney, but I am frightened of Obama, and to me, not casting a vote against him amounts to my sitting idly by while the country is raped and pillaged.

I can't do it.

Maybe, voting for Romney in Florida will be quixotic, but I will charge at that windmill with everything I have.

[massadvj]

Please understand that I am not critical of your choice, it's obviously a choice, so we all have the right to make our own, but having grown up in a place where I did not have the ability to vote, I see the exercise of my vote as a sacred duty; I owe it to the country and the people who welcomed me.

I am far from thrilled by Romney, but I am frightened of Obama, and to me, not casting a vote against him amounts to my sitting idly by while the country is raped and pillaged.

I can't do it.

Maybe, voting for Romney in Florida will be quixotic, but I will charge at that windmill with everything I have.

Romney cannot win without Florida.  He can win without Pennsylvania.

I did not say I was not going to vote.  I will definitely vote for my good conservative congressman Joe Pitts and several other candidates down ticket.  At this point, I have not decided to cast a ballot in the presidential race.  I do hope Obama loses, and I guess that means I hope Romney wins.  I also hope Liz Warren loses and Scott Brown wins.  But I can't vote for Scott Brown because he does not live in my geographical region.  In my mind, Romney does not reside within my political geography, so I can't really vote for him, either.  But I do not hold any animosity toward him, or for anyone who is supporting him.

[Oceander]

Romney cannot win without Florida.  He can win without Pennsylvania.

I did not say I was not going to vote.  I will definitely vote for my good conservative congressman Joe Pitts and several other candidates down ticket.  At this point, I have not decided to cast a ballot in the presidential race.  I do hope Obama loses, and I guess that means I hope Romney wins.  I also hope Liz Warren loses and Scott Brown wins.  But I can't vote for Scott Brown because he does not live in my geographical region.  In my mind, Romney does not reside within my political geography, so I can't really vote for him, either.  But I do not hold any animosity toward him, or for anyone who is supporting him.

Mass:  suppose, strictly for the sake of argument, that polls showed Pennsylvania narrowing and Obama having a mere hairs' breadth lead over Romney at the end of October - would you still not vote for Romney?

[Oceander]

Just as an aside, and to pat ourselves on our collective back, I'd like to point out that this thread is a good example of how debate on GBR is, well, debate, and not simply an angry shouting match.  We have basically one individual who is adamant about his position debating with several individuals who are just as adamant about their position, which contradicts the first individual's position and, so far, both sides have been able to articulate their positions well and no-one has devolved into angry name-calling or other derogatory comments.

Congratulations GBR!

And special thanks to Massadvj for holding his own and for not feeling that he's being ganged up on unfairly.  It takes a lot of strength of will and character to defend one's self articulately and peacefully.

[massadvj]

Mass:  suppose, strictly for the sake of argument, that polls showed Pennsylvania narrowing and Obama having a mere hairs' breadth lead over Romney at the end of October - would you still not vote for Romney?

I have not decided yet.  But assuming Romney hasn't sold too much of our liberty down the drain with his campaign promises, I can see myself voting for him.  It's like saying "Suppose you are allergic to both broccoli and cauliflower.  Broccoli will kill you quickly, whereas cauliflower will kill you over the long term.  Now suppose you had to eat one of them to survive.  Which one would you choose?"

The notion that I should choose cauliflower because cauliflower is "better" seems ludicrous to me.

[Oceander]

I have not decided yet.  But assuming Romney hasn't sold too much of our liberty down the drain with his campaign promises, I can see myself voting for him.  It's like saying "Suppose you are allergic to both broccoli and cauliflower.  Broccoli will kill you quickly, whereas cauliflower will kill you over the long term.  Now suppose you had to eat one of them to survive.  Which one would you choose?"

The notion that I should choose cauliflower because cauliflower is "better" seems ludicrous to me.

Fair enough.  But let's put you to the test:  would you choose cauliflower for the simple reason that you would have a better chance of survival, or would you instead choose to die for lack of any food at all?

[massadvj]

Fair enough.  But let's put you to the test:  would you choose cauliflower for the simple reason that you would have a better chance of survival, or would you instead choose to die for lack of any food at all?

I guess if it came down to no food at all, I'd eat cauliflower for survival.  That may be the gist of this election, for sure.

[Rapunzel]

“If people had been in Massachusetts, under Governor Romney’s health care plan, they would have had health care,” said Saul.

IT is surrogates making statements like this that make me question if I will indeed vote for Romney here in Arizona.......

[DCPatriot]

“If people had been in Massachusetts, under Governor Romney’s health care plan, they would have had health care,” said Saul.

IT is surrogates making statements like this that make me question if I will indeed vote for Romney here in Arizona.......

What's is the problem?

He said "REPEAL AND REPLACE"

[Rapunzel]

What's is the problem?

He said "REPEAL AND REPLACE"

There-in lies the difference between a fiscally conservative Republican and a liberal Republican... fiscally conservative Republicans want the government the hell out of healthcare... totally.

[DCPatriot]

There-in lies the difference between a fiscally conservative Republican and a liberal Republican... fiscally conservative Republicans want the government the hell out of healthcare... totally.

No....therein lies the difference between somebody who recognizes this is a States Rights issue and the Federal Government has no business sticking their power anywhere near my health needs or demands.

[Rapunzel]

No....therein lies the difference between somebody who recognizes this is a States Rights issue and the Federal Government has no business sticking their power anywhere near my health needs or demands.

That is not what Romney said today...in his appearances today he indicated that he will play around with something new to replace Obamacare... he doesn't get that we do not want him or anyone else playing around with healthcare at a national level.........  and the fact remains that his spokesperson should never have held up Romneycare as an excuse for the lie that was/is being fomented against Romney, she should have given the facts which are quite clear -- he had nothing to do with the woman being uninsured when she came down with cancer and the fact his campaign clearly doesn't get that is troublesome........ and too indicative of the McCain campaign mis-steps in 2008.

[DCPatriot]

Rush was freaked out today out a possible loss in November.

IMHO, this is a Purrfect time for Sarah Palin to come out swinging in opposition to Romney trying to walk away from repealing Obamacare.....which almost 70% of the country opposes.

[Rapunzel]

Rush was freaked out today out a possible loss in November.

IMHO, this is a Purrfect time for Sarah Palin to come out swinging in opposition to Romney trying to walk away from repealing Obamacare.....which almost 70% of the country opposes.

Won't happen... she is not going to do anything to undermine him at this point in the election, the time for that was in the primary.... but after he is elected --IF he is elected -- then the Tea Party needs to be very vocal in holding his feet to the fire or make him a one-termer...  I refuse to go along with another mushy Republican President........    however, unless he gets a better team to speak as his behalf on TV he is going to lose.. this is two spokes-people now who have blown his campaign for him with stupid statements... that never needed to be spoken.

[mystery-ak]

Rush was freaked out today out a possible loss in November.

IMHO, this is a Purrfect time for Sarah Palin to come out swinging in opposition to Romney trying to walk away from repealing Obamacare.....which almost 70% of the country opposes.

I know how he feels,,,not a good day for Mitt to say the least...