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I have it from a very 'reliable source' (you all know that means I pulled it out of my butt) that the currently Dead Justice Ginsburg will vote Aye for Trump and the wall.
Resignation?
President Trump to make announcement from the White House on Saturday at 3:00 pm ETTwitter, Jan 18, 2019, Donald J. TrumpDonald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump I will be making a major announcement concerning the Humanitarian Crisis on our Southern Border, and the Shutdown, tomorrow afternoon at 3 P.M., live from the @WhiteHouse.2:51 PM - 18 Jan 2019 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1086395559504764930?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Make a note...THIS is what Trump is going to do today:1. He will make a straight offer of full border wall funding in exchange for a DACA deal.2. He will give Congress 10 days (until the State of the Union) to put legislation on his desk.3. After 10 days, at the state of the Union, if there is no bill he will declare a state of emergency and begin building the wall with other funds.4. At that point, any DACA deal is off the table.5. This will be a take it or leave it deal...take it and get DACA...or don't take it and get nothing while the wall still gets built under an emergency directive.This will have multiple effects but its primary effect will be to separate the Hispanic caucus and Dem moderates from the hardcore "NeverWall" lefties...because they will have to choose to pass on a deal for 1.8 million DACA folks if they don't compromise with the President. This will put tremendous pressure on Pelosi/Schumer to back down and deal...and they will have to choose between their FAR left and traditional left. As always, the President will have Trumped the Dims once again. If they cave and make a deal, they piss off their Far Left and Trump looks like he's won and he gets his wall. If they don't cave...and my guess is that ultimately they won't...they alienate moderates and their Hispanic caucus...and Trump still gets his wall.
Dreamers for the wall, I don't like it but I can live with it as long as the Dreamers are (well) vetted.
Sort of. Trump will announce that:Ruth Bader Ginsburg has tendered her resignationTrump has named Amy Coney Barrett to replace herMitch McConnell has scheduled a confirmation vote at 3:15 pm
You are leaving something out. Once he makes the emergency declaration, it will be challenged in the courts. He can always petition SCOTUS to hear it right away and jump the appellate process. They have no obligation to do so and may decline. In that instance, it becomes mired in the courts for years, potentially and he loses all leverage.
Well, I'm not so much leaving it out as taking as a given...though I think your timeline is WAY off. I see a writ of certiaori taking this one right to the top as it conceivably constitutes a constitutional crisis...particularly if the President, as he should, chooses to ignore a District Court ruling by a cherry picked lib judge. If I were in Trump's shoes, I'd keep building right up until the Supreme Court told me to stop...lower courts can pound sand and IMHO have no real jurisdiction in settling a constitutional conflict between two branches of government of this magnitude.
That's exactly what happened with the travel ban. It was one of the first things Trump did and wasn't settled by SCOTUS until this past June. So, constitutional conflicts and Executive decisions made on the basis of national security can be and have been delayed by lower court decisions.
I agree. The Dreamers any are already here. Many working.Of all the immigration-related topics, Dreamers concern me the least.
I think the political calculation both parties are making now is when are they going give in and therefore look like the adult in the room. I think this is timed to give Trump the opportunity to play the hand first before Congress can reconvene next Tuesday..Both parties need the middle to win elections. Forcing government employees to work without pay, other government employees in non salaried positions to lose their paycheck with no chance to make it up and government contractors with no work and no pay doesn't sit will with the vast middle class living pay check to pay check.It would not surprise me at all for Trump to declare an emergency to build the wall and say he will sign the bill in the Senate to end the shut down. If he doesn't then I think you will see the Dims giving in next week and spend the next two years reminding the voters how Trump and the GOP don't give a damn about the middle class and how they put ending the shut down above politics to help the little guy...
I wouldn't be surprised to see a growing tide of "illegals" who are already "safely" ensconced in our system to advocate for a wall. Why would they want a bunch of interlopers crashing their party? They wouldn't.
I think the magnitude of this one makes certiaori far more likely...especially if he ignores the lower courts and keeps working until the Supremes rule. The travel ban was small beans in comparison to this situation IMHO...because this is leading into a true constitutional crisis.
He will need five SCOTUS judges to agree it needs to be fast tracked. Good luck with Roberts.
More politics, imho.They are all a bunch of do nothings. (Sorry but I'm a little angry at our elected officials right now.).
