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On Thin Ice: The Iran Nuclear Deal at ThreeWhat’s new? The Iran nuclear deal is entering its fourth year of implementation, with Iran remaining in full compliance with its obligations. Meanwhile, the Trump administration, which unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the deal in May 2018, has reimposed punitive sanctions on Iran. These have started to bite.Why does it matter? The U.S. appears to believe that economic and other pressure will compel Iran to renegotiate, suspend its ballistic missile program or reduce its regional footprint, or even trigger regime-shaking unrest. Iran’s patience to date could snap, leading it to violate the nuclear deal itself or retaliate against U.S. assets nearby.What should be done? To prevent an escalation, Tehran should continue complying with the deal, exercise restraint and help calm regional conflicts. It should also reform its banking sector. Other remaining signatories should engage Iran diplomatically and economically. Candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election should say they would rejoin the deal if elected.Read more at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/195-thin-ice-iran-nuclear-deal-three
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