East of the Euphrates: How the Latest Development of the Syrian Civil War Underscores the Fragility

[TomSea]

East of the Euphrates: How the Latest Development of the Syrian Civil War Underscores the Fragility of Non-state Actors in the Middle East - The Geopolitics
Robert Clark

President Trump’s decision to pull US forces out of Syria had several immediately noticeable effects. If the first was to cause surprise amongst military partners, in particular within the remainder of the coalition against Islamic State (IS), then an equal mix of opportunity and trepidation could be felt amongst the Turks and the Kurds in Syria respectively. The US’s crucial allies against IS, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), are wholly dominated by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the name used by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) when it operates on Syrian territory. The PKK, which has conducted a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state, is a proscribed terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU. The US’s partnership with the YPG/PKK since 2014 has, therefore, caused tension between Ankara and Washington, NATO’s two largest militaries, creating divisions within the alliance that have only served the interests of a revisionist Russia and Iran across the Middle East. This article explores the delicate relationship between states and non-states within the wider context of the Syrian civil war, specifically within the impending Turkish military offensive against the Kurds. Despite key areas of non-state influence, particularly militarily, ultimately system behaviours are determined by states’ national interests, especially in the Middle East.

Regarding the troop withdrawal announcement itself, opinion is split whether or not it represents a reversal of US policy; some claim unequivocally so, whilst others maintain that it is merely a continuation of policy since Obama’s shift from the Middle East to Asia. Initiated in 2011 by the then-President, the geopolitical interests of the US have shifted from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific region, a rebalancing of interests which Trump has sought to galvanize; the Syrian withdrawal a further example of this geopolitical rebalance. However, in a rebuke to Trump’s foreign policy decision making and of current US interests, Brett McGurk, until recently the US special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat IS, quit his post following the withdrawal announcement. Stating that even though IS militants in Syria were on the run, they had not yet been defeated and that a US withdrawal could create the conditions required that led to their rise. This was in addition to the much more public resignation of the Secretary of Defense, General Mattis, in an apparent disagreement over US national interests and treatment of US allies.

Read more at: https://thegeopolitics.com/east-of-the-euphrates-how-the-latest-development-of-the-syrian-civil-war-underscores-the-fragility-of-non-state-actors-in-the-middle-east/