Democrats won the House, but Trump won the election

[mystery-ak]

Washington Post ›

Democrats won the House, but Trump won the election
November 07, 2018

While Tuesday night was not a complete win for Republicans, there was no blue wave, either. By most measures, Republicans beat the odds of history and nearly everyone’s expectations, while Democrats were left disappointed as the fantasy of Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams and others winning fizzled. Not one new progressive Democrat was successful bursting onto the scene. It will take a few days to process the meaning of this year’s election returns, but the instant analysis is clear: Democrats may have won the House, but Trump won the election.

As I always say, in politics, what is supposed to happen tends to happen. I predicted in August that the Democrats would take the House but that alone was not enough for most Democrats. As much as this year’s midterms offered an obvious opportunity to rebuke President Trump, little of what the arrogant Democrats and members of the mainstream media expected would happen actually did. So much of what they said turned out to be wrong that it will take a while before the significance becomes clear. And if the 2018 midterms prove anything, it is that Trump is standing strong while Democrats and their allies who thought Trump would have been affirmatively rejected are in fact the ones who have themselves been denied.

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[Jazzhead]

Progressives lost, for sure.   Trump thinks he won,  but the Senate map was the most favorable it's been for the GOP in many years.   Given that , our gains were very small -  and a map heavily favoring the Dems will be in play for 2020.

Who won (and garnered the Dems their House majority) were Democrats running as centrists,  emphasizing health care and similar issues affecting the middle class.   The GOP should have done a lot better in the midst of a booming economy,  and I blame Trump for insisting the election be a referendum on him.   About two-thirds of voters agreed - and most of them went for the Dems.     

[Night Hides Not]

Progressives lost, for sure.   Trump thinks he won,  but the Senate map was the most favorable it's been for the GOP in many years.   Given that , our gains were very small -  and a map heavily favoring the Dems will be in play for 2020.

Who won (and garnered the Dems their House majority) were Democrats running as centrists,  emphasizing health care and similar issues affecting the middle class.   The GOP should have done a lot better in the midst of a booming economy,  and I blame Trump for insisting the election be a referendum on him.   About two-thirds of voters agreed - and most of them went for the Dems.   

2020 will be a referendum on Trump. He's screwed if the Democrats nominate more of a centrist this time around...we're screwed.

Dems make Beto their VP candidate, that might be enough. Trump will maintain his 35% base, but not much more.

[Jazzhead]

2020 will be a referendum on Trump. He's screwed if the Democrats nominate more of a centrist this time around...we're screwed.

Dems make Beto their VP candidate, that might be enough. Trump will maintain his 35% base, but not much more.

We're almost certainly screwed unless the Dems make the mistake of nominating a true crazy.   

Trump makes no effort to expand his appeal.   He cares only about his base and their appetite for red meat.   And the GOP is hemorrhaging support in the suburbs, and not just in the Northeast.   GOP suburban losses included Dallas, Richmond,  and even Oklahoma City.   His closing argument regarding immigration totally fell flat in the suburbs, and likely cost the GOP the House (but I give the Dems credit for running relative centrists in those districts). 

According to exit polls cited in the WSJ,  "some two thirds of voters expressed satisfaction with the economy, and these are people [Trump would] win if he didn't alienate them with his narcissism and petulance". 

Not now that the midterms are over,  we need to seriously assess the future of the GOP with Trump.    With the House now blue,  conservative policy initiatives are dead - but we may well see Pelosi and Trump cut deals on stuff that will curb economic growth.   The only real progress we are likely to see is with judgeships.

Bottom line is I want Trump gone in 2020.   Thank him for his service, just as he did Jeff Sessions, and let him get back to his businesses and his grandchildren.       

[TomSea]

One of the shows was saying, Republicans lost 36 house seats, Democrats lost something like 66 in 2010. So, yes, I agree with the sentiments of the OP. So, on that straight logic with Senate gains and maintaining a number of Senate seats, Trump won.

[Frank Cannon]

Progressives lost, for sure.   Trump thinks he won,  but the Senate map was the most favorable it's been for the GOP in many years.   Given that , our gains were very small -  and a map heavily favoring the Dems will be in play for 2020.

Who won (and garnered the Dems their House majority) were Democrats running as centrists,  emphasizing health care and similar issues affecting the middle class.   The GOP should have done a lot better in the midst of a booming economy,  and I blame Trump for insisting the election be a referendum on him.   About two-thirds of voters agreed - and most of them went for the Dems.   

LOL. Wishful thinking. You beloved centrist GOPers got shown the door this election. They did everything you worship. Bash trump, talk open borders and healthcare for all. If you were anywhere near right these candidates would have roared through reelection.

[Jazzhead]

One of the shows was saying, Republicans lost 36 house seats, Democrats lost something like 66 in 2010. So, yes, I agree with the sentiments of the OP. So, on that straight logic with Senate gains and maintaining a number of Senate seats, Trump won.

We have a booming economy at our backs.  And still the GOP lost 36 House seats, because this election was a referendum on Trump.   

[truth_seeker]

Swing districts, go back and forth over time.

The GOP held both majorities, since so many seats had gone their way, during Obama; IOW the GOP had a lot of seats, to lose.

Conversely, the dems had few to lose this time.

 Anecdotally; 16 term GOP Congressman Rohrabacher lost finally. He took the position that home sellers should be able to refuse to sell to homosexuals.


The National, California and local real estate associations withddrew their endorsements of him.

I know plenty of his white, suburban constituents rolled their eyes, over this  unforced political mistake.

[DCPatriot]

Swing districts, go back and forth over time.

The GOP held both majorities, since so many seats had gone their way, during Obama; IOW the GOP had a lot of seats, to lose.

Conversely, the dems had few to lose this time.

 Anecdotally; 16 term GOP Congressman Rohrabacher lost finally. He took the position that home sellers should be able to refuse to sell to homosexuals.


The National, California and local real estate associations withddrew their endorsements of him.

I know plenty of his white, suburban constituents rolled their eyes, over this  unforced political mistake.

Refuse to decorate/sell a cake?  Refuse to sell a house?

What's the dif?   /s   

[truth_seeker]

Refuse to decorate/sell a cake?  Refuse to sell a house?

What's the dif?   /s   

When I renew my real estate license, I am reminded again that this nation and my state, have had many "fair housing" laws for a very long time.

[Jazzhead]

Anecdotally; 16 term GOP Congressman Rohrabacher lost finally. He took the position that home sellers should be able to refuse to sell to homosexuals.


The National, California and local real estate associations withddrew their endorsements of him.

I know plenty of his white, suburban constituents rolled their eyes, over this  unforced political mistake.

Why would he say such an idiotic thing? 

[truth_seeker]

Why would he say such an idiotic thing?

I have yet to see, the origin.


You never know who can be trusted. One prominent past mayor, is a prominent realtor too.

Dana might have let an ill-advised off-hand remark slip, when he thought it was just casual hob-knobbing with friends.

There are many "Republicans" that are moderates.

But regardless, Dana's days were numbered. based on the same trends seen nationally with Cruz fighting for his life.

The getting away with anti-gay public mutterings, are gone. At least north of Mason-Dixon and west of the Mississippi.

I'm not surprised Dana bit the dust. A couple of times when I contacted his office, they were very arrogant. I should have been reckoned with as a helpful constituent, calling important matters to their attention, but instead it was adversarial from the start. In fact the topic was something he got involved with at the 1th hour, with the election coming on fast. I voted for him. Because I am a political adult.

 

[endicom]

The author is Ed Rogers.

Rogers is a contributor to the PostPartisan blog, a political consultant and a veteran of the Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush White Houses and several national campaigns. He is the chairman of the lobbying and communications firm BGR Group, which he founded with former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour in 1991.

https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/Democrats-won-the-House-but-Trump-won-the-13370686.php

[Fishrrman]

Night Hides wrote:
"He's screwed if the Democrats nominate more of a centrist this time around..."

Name one.

[Right_in_Virginia]

We're almost certainly screwed unless the Dems make the mistake of nominating a true crazy.   

Ah, come on, admit it.  You don't think any Democrat is a true crazy.  And if you did, you'd vote for that candidate twice.

[Jazzhead]

Ah, come on, admit it.  You don't think any Democrat is a true crazy.  And if you did, you'd vote for that candidate twice.

So when did I last vote for a Dem?   Please remind me.   

It was Trump's fault - indeed because it was Trump's intent - not to grow his minority coalition.   Reagan could.  Bush could.   Trump apparently can't or won't.   

We did okay this year only because the Senate map favored us,  and because in a few of the big races, the Dems put up true leftists that couldn't ultimately make the sale (but came within percentage points of doing so, in red Texas, Florida and Georgia).   But Trumpism was routed in the suburbs, from coast to coast, whenever the Dems didn't run a crazy.