Rush: Polls Don’t Matter, Votes Do

[mystery-ak]

Polls Don’t Matter, Votes Do

Nov 5, 2018




RUSH: I’m watching Fox. Peter Doocy’s doing a story on Florida governor Rick Scott and his campaign for Senate against the mummified Bill Nelson who’s been there 46 years, I think, or whatever it is. And it’s interesting. Trump is saying (summarized), “You know, during the hurricane down there, I got a call from Rick Scott. He’s the governor. But I never heard from the senator. I never heard from Bill Nelson. Vote for Scott.” But here’s the news with Rick Scott, and it’s from Fox News: “Rick Scott Takes Rare Lead in Last-Minute Florida Senate Poll, as Toss-ups Dominate the Map.”

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa! Toss-ups?

“Why,” I say sarcastically, “I thought there was a blue wave that we were all gonna be swamped by and that we were gonna be drowned and unable to reach the surface tomorrow night. What is this ‘toss-ups’?” But more importantly here: “Florida Republican Senate candidate Rick Scott, who currently serves as the state’s governor, has narrowly pulled ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in a new poll released Saturday — the first major survey in two weeks to show Scott leading, and a positive sign for Republicans as they seek to retain control of the Senate.”

I need to remind you of a truism that I often annunciate: When we get this close to the election, starting about a week out, that’s when you can start trusting the polls. That’s when they have to be concerned about their reputations, those who still are. Not all of them are. Some of them are so partisan they’ll worry about their reputation later. But most of them… All of these polls that we have faced and dealt with all this year have been designed to shape public opinion.

They’ve been designed to create in your mind the expectation of a blue wave. It’s been designed to make you think that the country has sobered up, the country has realized it’s mistakes in voting for Trump and Republicans, and it’s time now to get serious. That happens to be Obama’s message and the others. So the polling showing a blue wave and Democrats winning here and there and everywhere is designed to make that you think it’s essentially over, that the statistics on midterm elections are true.

The party out of power wins big; this is no exception. Those polls could in no way… Let me qualify. Rarely can those polls be correct because the events that shape elections haven’t even come close to happening yet. I mean, I get bored by listening to polling reports from July, June, January. I really resent that polling results have become news, and the fact that poll results are news, to me, are proof of the purpose of polls today, which is to shape public opinion, not reflect it.

In every one of these preelection polls, the Republicans are gonna get swamped, right? Republicans don’t have a prayer. “I mean, they might even lose the Senate in addition to losing every seat in the House!” The Democrats were gonna pick up 200 seats, said one poll, in a purposely mis-composed headline. Well, now we are a day out, and beginning about seven days ago, the polls start looking differently, don’t they? Isn’t it amazing? All the races seem to tighten up, and all the people who were promising slam dunks start hedging their bets.

Because they were making it all up a month ago and two months ago. They were reporting their hopes. They were reporting their dreams. They were getting polls results that reflected their desires. Anybody who runs a poll can get any result they want. It all depends on the sample and how you ask the questions. But now they have to be concerned about their reputations. Now they have to be able to say (when elections are over) that they called it, that they were the closest, that they were the most accurate.

So now these races have tightened up and toss-ups and “Eh, we don’t know!” Even Nate Silver… I’m getting ahead of myself here. Even Nate Silver is kind of gone poof and said, “You know, yeah, it was 86% last week Democrats win the House, but it could go either way.” He’s essentially taken it down to 50-50, which means, “I don’t know.” So back to the Rick Scott poll here. “Rick Scott has narrowly pulled ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in a new poll released [over the weekend] — the first major survey in two weeks to show Scott leading…

“The results, from St. Pete Polls, give Scott a lead of 49.1% percent to 47.5%, within the margin of error… Conversely, the same group of likely voters surveyed by St. Pete Polls preferred Democrat Andrew Gillum to Republican Ron DeSantis in the state’s [governor’s race 48-43] with 3.7% undecided.” Then it goes on to talk about how Kyrsten Sinema is leading McSally by three… No, no, no. They’re tied statistically. The point is, has Rick Scott ever really been this far behind?

Nobody knows. Now, it may not be bad that it’s made to look like Scott is coming back and mounting a late challenge, but how does that…? Nobody really knows that because nobody’s voted yet. I hate it tell you, but who’s gonna win tomorrow has already been determined. We just don’t know the result yet ’cause the voting hasn’t happened. The people know how they’re gonna vote. And even if they don’t know how they’re gonna vote, the people that are gonna vote are gonna vote, and it’s gonna determine who wins. And nobody knows what that’s gonna be.

God knows — if he cares. But the idea that somebody can be mounting a late challenge? Based on what? So much of this is just smoke and mirrors made to look like a horse race, when it isn’t. The election takes place in one day over the course… Well, with early voting it’s longer than that, and that’s another factor where some of this early polling can actually come in and be even more effective in terms of shaping public opinion.

But the point is, Rick Scott has now pulled ahead, if he was ever behind. We don’t know. But up until today, this past weekend, Rick Scott was dead! Rick Scott didn’t have a prayer to win the Republican Senate seat in Florida. Bill Nelson was a slam dunk until this past weekend. My only point is, nobody really that. So the bottom line is: Don’t believe or trust anything that you see or hear experts tell you, because nobody knows — and votes do matter.

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/11/05/polls-dont-matter-votes-do/