2018 Midterm: Polls, Voting Data & Stats, Maps, Debates, News

[Free Vulcan]

Central place to track candidates and voting.

[Free Vulcan]

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267

FRESH POLLING.  North Dakota Senate Race.  DEM Incumbent Heitkamp 41%, GOP Challenger Cramer 55%.  GOP has opened up a 14 pt lead.

Missouri Senate Race. GOP Challenger Hawley 51%, DEM Incumbent McCaskill 42%.

Michigan Senate Race. GOP Challenger James 44%, DEM Incumbent Stabenow 48%. Race has narrowed to 4% and Incumbent is at Dangerous 48%.

Indiana Senate Race.  GOP Challenger Braun 46%, DEM Incumbent Donnelly 42%

Arizona Senate Race  GOP  McSally 48%, DEM Sinema 44%

Tennessee Senate Race. GOP Blackburn 52%, DEM Bredesen 41%. GOP opens up an 11 pt lead.

FLORIDA SENATE RACE. GOP Challenger Scott 50%, DEM Incumbent Nelson 43%. SCOTT has a 7 pt lead.

Wisconsin Governor Race. GOP Incumbent Walker 49%, DEM Challenger Evers 46%.

WEST VIRGINIA SENATE RACE. It's tied at 45%. DEM Incumbent Manchin gains 2 points on Kavanaugh vote.

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FLA Guy gives no links or sources so I suspect he's with a polling firm or similar, because I'm not seeing these in RealClearPolitics when he posts them.

Which makes me take his posts with a grain of salt until sourced, but till proven in accurate I'll continue to post.

[endicom]

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267

[Sanguine]

Thanks, @Free Vulcan.  Much appreciated.

[jafo2010]

Sen Manchin has a solid shot in West Virginia.  He has a long record in WV, and most people in the state respect him.  His opponent on the other hand lacks recognition.  I asked one of my best friends that lives in WV who he would vote for and he responded, 'Manchin, I don't know the other guy'.  This from someone that has lived in WV for 40+ years.

The rest of them, I think the Republicans have a good chance of taking them all.

[TomSea]

Manchin's opponent is running fairly close. This Kavanaugh vote may put Manchin over the top and his constituency pressured him, according to the news, to vote for Kavanaugh.

Patrick Morrisey is his opponent,

Manchin has an 8 point lead in this article from a week ago: https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Poll-Manchin-holds-8-point-lead-over-Morrisey-in-US-Senate-race-494840231.html

End of September poll: http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/Gray+Television+West+Virginia+Survey.pdf

[Hoodat]

Manchin has an 8 point lead in this article from a week ago: https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Poll-Manchin-holds-8-point-lead-over-Morrisey-in-US-Senate-race-494840231.html

lol.  A Harrisonburg, VA station.  You would think that a West Virginia TV station could do its own polling.

Fun fact:  FoxNews' Julie Banderas once worked for WHSV.

[Gefn]

Latest poll today in NJ has a dead heat in senate race. Thanks for all this info. 
@Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Latest poll today in NJ has a dead heat in senate race. Thanks for all this info. 
@Free Vulcan

WOW!

[Free Vulcan]

Florida Guy @floridaguy267
7h7 hours ago

BOOM! Florida Absentee Early voting by Mail.   Traditionally Democrats lead this between 20-60K.  Current Projections indicate GOP will lead by 50K in Early voting by mail.

Florida Guy @floridaguy267
8h8 hours ago

FLORIDA ABSENTEE BALLOT EARLY VOTING.  Democrats traditionally lead GOP 40% to 38%. Today GOP has 47.7% to Democrats 33.3%. Ind 19% which is normal.  GOP has 16.4 pt lead over tradition.

Florida Guy @floridaguy267
7h7 hours ago

BOOM! Florida Absentee Early voting by Mail.   Traditionally Democrats lead this between 20-60K.  Current Projections indicate GOP will lead by 50K in Early voting by mail.

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267

BREAKING: Boston Police Union refuses to endorse Massachusetts Democrat Senator Warren.
5:35 AM - 9 Oct 2018

[cato potatoe]

Dean Heller showed a 2 point lead in the latest Nevada poll.  The most problematic races are out west.  If he can pull off reelection then obviously it changes the math.

[Free Vulcan]

Nevada Governor - NBC News/Marist   9/30 - 10/3   574 LV   5.5   45   46   Laxalt +1

Laxalt has been down the whole time since polling start, as much as -12 till this poll.

[Free Vulcan]

Republican Poll Shows Rep. Don Bacon Has 9-Point Lead in Nebraska House Race
Democrat Kara Eastman considered best chance of picking up Cornhusker seat

A poll conducted for Republican Rep. Don Bacon found he leads by 9 points in a House race Democrats have pegged as their best pick-up opportunity in Nebraska.

Bacon led Democrat Kara Eastman 49 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided, according to a telephone survey of 400 registered voters conducted by Rob Autry and Kayla Dunlap.

Republicans have held the 2nd District, which encompasses Omaha and contains some of Nebraska’s few pockets of Democratic strength for the better part of the last quarter century — barring two years Democrat Brad Ashford was in office from 2014 to 2016. President Trump carried the district by 3 points in 2016.

Eastman, the founder of a public health non-profit, is part of the Democratic Congressional Committee’s Red to Blue Program, which funnels support to candidates it considers capable of flipping Republican seats.

Bacon’s poll found the retired Air Force brigadier general and first-term House member had a 52 percent to 32 percent favorable image rating, compared to Eastman’s 36 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/republican-poll-shows-rep-don-bacon-9-point-lead-nebraska-house-race

[Free Vulcan]

Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema - ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights   10/1 - 10/2   600 LV   4.0   41   47   McSally (R) +6

Biggest lead posted for McSally, 12 point shift in the last month.

[Sanguine]

Biggest lead posted for McSally, 12 point shift in the last month.

That's quite a change.

[Free Vulcan]

That's quite a change.

That's what I thought. I generally discount a single poll because of the skew toward Democrats, but several over time showing that kind of shift I take more seriously.

Noticed that in a number of races.

[Polly Ticks]

.

[truth_seeker]

More Evidence For the Kavanaugh Effect


The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 45% would opt for the Republican.
Historically, Democrats have usually underperformed on election day, compared with their generic poll standing. Normally, one would expect Republicans to do very well if they are even, or close to even, on the generic ballot. The big caveat here is that the Democrats are far better financed than the Republicans and have poured unprecedented amounts of money into the 30 or 40 districts that will determine which party holds the majority.
Last week, 47% of voters said they would choose the Democratic candidate while 42% said they would choose the Republican. It is unclear whether the sudden jump to a tie vote is a reflection of the anger surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation process, but we will continue to watch this in the

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 45% would opt for the Republican.
Historically, Democrats have usually underperformed on election day, compared with their generic poll standing. Normally, one would expect Republicans to do very well if they are even, or close to even, on the generic ballot. The big caveat here is that the Democrats are far better financed than the Republicans and have poured unprecedented amounts of money into the 30 or 40 districts that will determine which party holds the majority.
Last week, 47% of voters said they would choose the Democratic candidate while 42% said they would choose the Republican. It is unclear whether the sudden jump to a tie vote is a reflection of the anger surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation process, but we will continue to watch this in the"



https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/10/more-evidence-for-the-kavanaugh-effect.php

[Free Vulcan]

Generic Congressional Vote - Rasmussen Reports   9/30 - 10/4   2500 LV   45    45   Tie

Likely voters, big sample. Rasmussen samples fairly accurately. Pants crapping time for the Dems.

[Sanguine]

Likely voters, big sample. Rasmussen samples fairly accurately. Pants crapping time for the Dems.

Fantastic.

[Cyber Liberty]

Biggest lead posted for McSally, 12 point shift in the last month.

Hard for me to tell out here.  The only local polls are done by the PBS affiliates.

Sinema is very popular among the Socialists, and AZ's been getting bluer.  Judging by the number of commercials I see, the Dems are pouring a lot of money into the state. 

[catfish1957]

Likely voters, big sample. Rasmussen samples fairly accurately. Pants crapping time for the Dems.

The dims.....  literally snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[truth_seeker]

Hard for me to tell out here.  The only local polls are done by the PBS affiliates.

Sinema is very popular among the Socialists, and AZ's been getting bluer.  Judging by the number of commercials I see, the Dems are pouring a lot of money into the state.

With so many Dem seats in jeopardy, they see AZ as a good chance for a flip.

[Cyber Liberty]

With so many Dem seats in jeopardy, they see AZ as a good chance for a flip.

A good bet on their part.  Sinema has had an iron grip on her CD in the Phoenix area.  The "independent" redistricting board made it a safe Rat seat, diluting the conservative Southeast Valley with the Phoenix Central Corridor.

[cato potatoe]

Ned Lamont leads the governor's race in Connecticut by 8 points.  I guess they want to shed every corporate office they have left.