Rivard Report by Jim Henson 10/6/2018
With Election Day now only a few weeks away, the race between incumbent Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke has attracted national and international attention.
For Cruz, a star in national conservative politics, losing to O’Rourke would be a particularly bitter pill. Cruz rose to prominence during the heyday of the Tea Party, and was the last man standing against Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. He’s being challenged by a magnetic candidate embraced by both Texas and national Democrats – and, it’s fair to say, an adoring press.
So can O’Rourke defeat Cruz?We’ve conducted public opinion polls throughout Cruz’s electoral career as principals in the most frequent statewide political poll in Texas, the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, and we’ve worked closely with statewide election data. Even if O’Rourke manages to increase Democratic turnout beyond reasonable expectations, it is very unlikely he can overcome the structural obstacles he faces in Cruz’s existing advantages.
O’Rourke’s challenge, by the numbersOne poll in the late summer found that 15 percent of likely Republican voters said they’ll cast a vote for O’Rourke. Other polls have found the size of the pool of potential Republican defectors closer to 6 percent. We believe the 15 percent figure is likely an outlier, especially considering there’s little evidence that GOP voters in Texas have soured on Trump. The estimate of 6 percent is more consistent with the current level of partisan polarization in Texas and the rest of the country.
We can use these poll results to estimate potential 2018 vote shares based on turnout data from recent midterm elections.
More:
https://therivardreport.com/why-beto-orourke-wont-beat-ted-cruz-in-texas/
